Ümraniyespor
vs
Kayserispor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Ümraniyespor 0–1 Kayserispor
The model makes it 26% Ümraniyespor, 30% draw, 44% Kayserispor — fair odds of 3.85, 3.33 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Ümraniyespor 0.92, Kayserispor 1.37.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
One-sided: Kayserispor are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Ümraniyespor's rating is built from 49 TFF 1. Lig matches and Kayserispor's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Ümraniyespor are 13th on 13 points from 11 games; Kayserispor are top on 26 points from 11 games — 1. Lig.
- Ümraniyespor are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Sivasspor.
- Kayserispor are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Batman Petrolspor.
- Last 2 meetings: Kayserispor 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 April 2023, ended Kayserispor 3–1 Ümraniyespor.
More TFF 1. Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kayserispor at 44% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor
Ümraniyespor
1. Lig
- W4-0Sivasspor24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Vanspor FK18 October 2026
- D1-1Sarıyer9 October 2026
- W1-0away to Bandırmaspor18 September 2026
- L1-2Antalyaspor12 September 2026
Kayserispor
1. Lig
- D2-2Batman Petrolspor18 October 2026
- W4-0away to Antalyaspor14 October 2026
- W3-2Manisa F.K.10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Mardin 196920 September 2026
- W4-0İstanbulspor14 September 2026
What these results say
- Ümraniyespor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kayserispor went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Kayserispor scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kayserispor won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Ümraniyespor | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 |
| 1 | Kayserispor | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ümraniyespor vs Kayserispor
- 10 April 2023Kayserispor 3–1 ÜmraniyesporSüper Lig
- 9 October 2022Ümraniyespor 2–2 KayserisporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Ümraniyespor and Kayserispor
Ümraniyespor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Kayserispor
GoalsAssists
- T. Seferi91
- D. Moreno71
- B. Keser32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ümraniyespor carry a model rating of 6.38 against 6.72 for Kayserispor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.92 goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.37 for Kayserispor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ümraniyespor rate 0.54 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kayserispor rate 0.81 and 1.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ümraniyespor a 0% chance of the title and Kayserispor 55.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kayserispor the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Ümraniyespor against 1.37 for Kayserispor. Ümraniyespor's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.05 for Kayserispor.
How the model reaches 44% for Kayserispor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Kayserispor to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Ümraniyespor's ratings add 23 points and Kayserispor's ratings take away 8 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Ümraniyespor's ratings52%+23
- Kayserispor's ratings44%−8
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ümraniyespor at home · Kayserispor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Ümraniyespor 11, Kayserispor 11.
Kayserispor score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Ümraniyespor have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Ümraniyespor
- at Iğdır FK20 Nov · 1. Ligwin 25%
- vs Manisa F.K.29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 48%
- at İstanbulspor6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 42%
Kayserispor
- vs Sarıyer21 Nov · 1. Ligwin 66%
- at Keçiörengücü29 Nov · 1. Ligwin 37%
- vs Bodrum FK6 Dec · 1. Ligwin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.