Ipswich
vs
Nottingham Forest
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Ipswich 1–2 Nottingham Forest
The model makes it 36% Ipswich, 27% draw, 37% Nottingham Forest — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Ipswich 1.50, Nottingham Forest 1.52.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Ipswich and Nottingham Forest are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Ipswich are 10th on 9 points from 6 games; Nottingham Forest are 15th on 5 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Ipswich have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Fulham.
- Nottingham Forest have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Crystal Palace.
- Last 6 meetings: Nottingham Forest 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2025, ended Ipswich 2–4 Nottingham Forest.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nottingham Forest at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest
Ipswich
- W2-1Fulham10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Everton19 September 2026
- W3-2away to Crystal Palace12 September 2026
- L0-2Liverpool4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Manchester United30 August 2026
Nottingham Forest
- L1-3away to Crystal Palace11 October 2026
- L0-1Coventry19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Aston Villa12 September 2026
- D0-0Tottenham5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Liverpool29 August 2026
What these results say
- Ipswich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nottingham Forest conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Ipswich
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 25% today
Nottingham Forest
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest
- 15 March 2025Ipswich 2–4 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 3 March 2025Nottingham Forest 1–1 IpswichFA Cup
- 30 November 2024Nottingham Forest 1–0 IpswichPremier League
- 16 March 2019Ipswich 1–1 Nottingham ForestChampionship
- 1 December 2018Nottingham Forest 2–0 IpswichChampionship
- 14 April 2018Nottingham Forest 2–1 IpswichChampionship
Leading scorers: Ipswich and Nottingham Forest
Ipswich
GoalsAssists
- Emersonn21
Nottingham Forest
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ipswich carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.87 for Nottingham Forest. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Ipswich and 1.52 for Nottingham Forest. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ipswich rate 1.04 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nottingham Forest rate 0.92 and 0.90.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ipswich, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nottingham Forest the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Ipswich against 1.52 for Nottingham Forest. Ipswich's attack/defence rating is 1.04/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.9 for Nottingham Forest.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ipswich at home · Nottingham Forest away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
IpswichNottingham Forest
Ipswich are 9th after 6 Premier League matches (between 4th and 13th so far); Nottingham Forest are 14th after 6 (between 10th and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Ipswich 6, Nottingham Forest 6.
Ipswich score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Nottingham Forest have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Ipswich
- at Hull City31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Bournemouth8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
- at Tottenham21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Aston Villa28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
Nottingham Forest
- at Brentford31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Manchester City7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 18%
- at Bournemouth21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Chelsea27 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.