Newcastle
vs
Aston Villa
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Newcastle 1–2 Aston Villa
The model makes it 35% Newcastle, 27% draw, 38% Aston Villa — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Newcastle 1.74, Aston Villa 1.86.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Newcastle and Aston Villa are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Newcastle are 9th on 8 points from 5 games; Aston Villa are 16th on 4 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- Newcastle have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Hull City.
- Aston Villa have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win away to Tottenham.
- Last 6 meetings: Newcastle 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Aston Villa 1–3 Newcastle.
All Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aston Villa at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Newcastle
- W2-1Hull City19 September 2026
- L1-4away to Leeds14 September 2026
- D2-2Bournemouth5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Tottenham29 August 2026
- D2-2Liverpool23 August 2026
Aston Villa
- W3-2away to Tottenham19 September 2026
- L1-2Nottingham Forest12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hull City5 September 2026
- L0-1Arsenal31 August 2026
- L0-4away to Brighton23 August 2026
What these results say
- Newcastle scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Newcastle conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Newcastle had three goals or more.
- Aston Villa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aston Villa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Newcastle vs Aston Villa
- 14 February 2026Aston Villa 1–3 NewcastleFA Cup
- 25 January 2026Newcastle 0–2 Aston VillaPremier League
- 16 August 2025Aston Villa 0–0 NewcastlePremier League
- 19 April 2025Aston Villa 4–1 NewcastlePremier League
- 26 December 2024Newcastle 3–0 Aston VillaPremier League
- 30 January 2024Aston Villa 1–3 NewcastlePremier League
Leading scorers: Newcastle and Aston Villa
Newcastle
- J. Willock2 goals
Aston Villa
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Newcastle carry a model rating of 6.88 against 6.98 for Aston Villa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Newcastle and 1.86 for Aston Villa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newcastle rate 1.15 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aston Villa rate 1.23 and 0.95.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Newcastle, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aston Villa the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Newcastle against 1.86 for Aston Villa. Newcastle's attack/defence rating is 1.15/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.23/0.95 for Aston Villa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Newcastle at home · Aston Villa away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Newcastle 5, Aston Villa 5.
Aston Villa score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Newcastle have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Newcastle
- at Crystal Palace25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 39%
- vs Everton2 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Fulham7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- vs Arsenal21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 23%
Aston Villa
- vs Viking21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 46%
- vs Manchester City24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Fulham31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.