VfB Stuttgart
vs
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: VfB Stuttgart 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
The model makes it 62% VfB Stuttgart, 20% draw, 18% Borussia Mönchengladbach — fair odds of 1.61, 5.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.58, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.17.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: VfB Stuttgart are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- VfB Stuttgart are 11th on 6 points from 5 games; Borussia Mönchengladbach are bottom on 0 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- VfB Stuttgart have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to SC Paderborn 07.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to 1. FC Köln.
- Last 6 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 25 January 2026, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–3 VfB Stuttgart.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfB Stuttgart at 62% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
VfB Stuttgart
- W2-0away to SC Paderborn 0710 October 2026
- L0-1Borussia Dortmund19 September 2026
- L1-2away to 1899 Hoffenheim12 September 2026
- W4-11. FC Köln4 September 2026
- L1-5away to Bayern München28 August 2026
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- L1-2away to 1. FC Köln11 October 2026
- L3-4FSV Mainz 0519 September 2026
- L0-5away to SC Freiburg12 September 2026
- L3-4SV Elversberg5 September 2026
- L0-3away to RB Leipzig29 August 2026
What these results say
- VfB Stuttgart scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Borussia Mönchengladbach had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Mönchengladbach and VfB Stuttgart have met 6 times in the records we hold, VfB Stuttgart has won 4 of them to Borussia Mönchengladbach's 2.
The record
VfB Stuttgart won the last one 3–0 on 25 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 3.17 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Jan 2026
BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 0–3 VfB Stuttgart - 30 Aug 2025
BundesligaVfB Stuttgart 1–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 1 Feb 2025
BundesligaVfB Stuttgart 1–2 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 14 Sep 2024
BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 1–3 VfB Stuttgart - 18 May 2024
BundesligaVfB Stuttgart 4–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 14 Jan 2024
BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 3–1 VfB Stuttgart
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.83 | 1.21 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.16 | 0.91 |
The two sides
VfB Stuttgart carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.66 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.58 goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.17 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfB Stuttgart rate 1.16 in attack and 0.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Borussia Mönchengladbach rate 0.83 and 1.21.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,771 correct results out of 3,709 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfB Stuttgart the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.58 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart against 1.17 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. VfB Stuttgart's attack/defence rating is 1.16/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.21 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
VfB Stuttgart at home · Borussia Mönchengladbach away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
VfB StuttgartBorussia Mönchengladbach
VfB Stuttgart are 10th after 5 Bundesliga matches (between 7th and 18th so far); Borussia Mönchengladbach are 18th after 5 (between 17th and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: VfB Stuttgart 5, Borussia Mönchengladbach 5.
VfB Stuttgart score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Borussia Mönchengladbach have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
VfB Stuttgart
- at SC Paderborn 0727 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 43%
- at Bayer Leverkusen31 Oct · Bundesligawin 25%
- at Galatasaray3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 30%
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- vs Karlsruher SC27 Oct · DFB Pokalwin 64%
- vs SC Paderborn 0731 Oct · Bundesligawin 41%
- at Hamburger SV6 Nov · Bundesligawin 33%
- vs Borussia Dortmund21 Nov · Bundesligawin 15%
- at Werder Bremen27 Nov · Bundesligawin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.