Fulham
vs
Hull City
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Fulham 0–1 Hull City
The model makes it 33% Fulham, 31% draw, 36% Hull City — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Fulham 1.07, Hull City 1.15.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Fulham and Hull City are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Fulham are 19th on 2 points from 5 games; Hull City are 8th on 8 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- Fulham have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Manchester United.
- Hull City are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Newcastle.
- Last 6 meetings: Fulham 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 7 January 2023, ended Hull City 0–2 Fulham.
All Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Fulham vs Hull City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hull City at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fulham vs Hull City
Fulham
- D1-1Manchester United20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Liverpool12 September 2026
- L2-3Crystal Palace5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sunderland30 August 2026
- L2-3Chelsea24 August 2026
Hull City
- L1-2away to Newcastle19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Chelsea12 September 2026
- D0-0Aston Villa5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Coventry29 August 2026
- W2-0Manchester United22 August 2026
What these results say
- Fulham did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fulham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hull City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fulham vs Hull City
- 7 January 2023Hull City 0–2 FulhamFA Cup
- 12 February 2022Hull City 0–1 FulhamChampionship
- 21 August 2021Fulham 2–0 Hull CityChampionship
- 11 January 2020Hull City 0–1 FulhamChampionship
- 2 November 2019Fulham 0–3 Hull CityChampionship
- 30 December 2017Hull City 2–2 FulhamChampionship
Leading scorers: Fulham and Hull City
Fulham
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Hull City
- M. Belloumi2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fulham carry a model rating of 6.82 against 6.94 for Hull City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Fulham and 1.15 for Hull City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fulham rate 0.86 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hull City rate 0.90 and 0.78.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hull City the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Fulham against 1.15 for Hull City. Fulham's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/0.78 for Hull City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fulham at home · Hull City away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Fulham 5, Hull City 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Fulham
- at Coventry24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Aston Villa31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Newcastle7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Manchester City21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 18%
Hull City
- vs Brentford25 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs Ipswich31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- at Arsenal7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs Brighton22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.