Manchester City
vs
Ipswich
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Manchester City 3–0 Ipswich
The model makes it 65% Manchester City, 20% draw, 15% Ipswich — fair odds of 1.54, 5.00 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (8%).
Expected goals: Manchester City 3.19, Ipswich 0.98.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Manchester City are top on 15 points from 5 games; Ipswich are 11th on 6 points from 5 games — Premier League.
- Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 5 (5 won), most recently a 5-3 win at home to Sunderland.
- Ipswich have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Everton.
- Last 2 meetings: Manchester City 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 January 2025, ended Ipswich 0–6 Manchester City.
All Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Manchester City vs Ipswich
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manchester City at 65% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Manchester City vs Ipswich
Manchester City
- W5-3Sunderland20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Manchester United13 September 2026
- W1-0Coventry5 September 2026
- W4-1away to Crystal Palace28 August 2026
- W2-1Bournemouth23 August 2026
Ipswich
- L0-1away to Everton19 September 2026
- W3-2away to Crystal Palace12 September 2026
- L0-2Liverpool4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Manchester United30 August 2026
- W2-1Sunderland22 August 2026
What these results say
- Manchester City won every one of these 5 matches.
- Manchester City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ipswich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 11 | Ipswich | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Manchester City vs Ipswich
- 19 January 2025Ipswich 0–6 Manchester CityPremier League
- 24 August 2024Manchester City 4–1 IpswichPremier League
Leading scorers: Manchester City and Ipswich
Manchester City
- E. Haaland5 goals
- R. Cherki3 goals2 assists
- A. Semenyo2 goals3 assists
Ipswich
- Emersonn2 goals1 assist
- L. Davis2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Manchester City carry a model rating of 7.28 against 6.77 for Ipswich. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.19 goals for Manchester City and 0.98 for Ipswich. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Manchester City rate 1.64 in attack and 0.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ipswich rate 1.02 and 1.22.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester City the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.19 expected goals for Manchester City against 0.98 for Ipswich. Manchester City's attack/defence rating is 1.64/0.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/1.22 for Ipswich.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Manchester City at home · Ipswich away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Manchester City 5, Ipswich 5.
Manchester City score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Ipswich have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Manchester City
- vs AEK Athens FC20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 51%
- at Aston Villa24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- vs Brighton31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 47%
Ipswich
- vs Nottingham Forest23 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- at Hull City31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Bournemouth8 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at Tottenham21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.