LDU de Quito
vs
Aucas
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: LDU de Quito 1–0 Aucas
The model makes it 49% LDU de Quito, 28% draw, 23% Aucas — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: LDU de Quito 1.59, Aucas 0.91.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to LDU de Quito: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. LDU de Quito's rating is built from 76 Ecuador LigaPro matches and Aucas's from 76, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- LDU de Quito are 4th on 54 points from 36 games; Aucas are 5th on 54 points from 36 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- LDU de Quito are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Barcelona SC.
- Aucas have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Independiente del Valle.
- Last 6 meetings: LDU de Quito 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 17 October 2026, ended Aucas 1–1 LDU de Quito.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: LDU de Quito vs Aucas
Has the model earned this number?
LDU de Quito at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into LDU de Quito vs Aucas
LDU de Quito
Liga Pro
- D1-1away to Barcelona SC8 November 2026
- L0-2away to Independiente del Valle1 November 2026
- L1-2Macara24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Aucas17 October 2026
- W2-1Barcelona SC11 October 2026
Aucas
Liga Pro
- L2-4Independiente del Valle8 November 2026
- W2-1away to Universidad Catolica Quito1 November 2026
- L0-4Barcelona SC25 October 2026
- D1-1LDU de Quito17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Independiente del Valle10 October 2026
What these results say
- LDU de Quito conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- LDU de Quito failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- LDU de Quito scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aucas conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aucas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aucas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | LDU de Quito | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 38 | 32 | +6 | 54 |
| 5 | Aucas | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 40 | 42 | -2 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: LDU de Quito vs Aucas
- 17 October 2026Aucas 1–1 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 26 August 2026LDU de Quito 1–0 AucasCopa Ecuador
- 17 August 2026Aucas 0–1 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 23 April 2026LDU de Quito 0–0 AucasLiga Pro
- 9 August 2025Aucas 1–0 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 18 April 2025LDU de Quito 3–1 AucasLiga Pro
Leading scorers: LDU de Quito and Aucas
LDU de Quito
GoalsAssists
- M. Estrada72
Aucas
No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on LDU de Quito v Aucas has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 47% / 29% / 24% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 49% / 28% / 23%: the biggest move is LDU de Quito's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- LDU de Quito win49%▲ +2
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Aucas win23%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives LDU de Quito the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for LDU de Quito against 0.91 for Aucas. LDU de Quito's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.48 for Aucas.
How the model reaches 49% for LDU de Quito to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for LDU de Quito to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, LDU de Quito's ratings add 2 points and Aucas's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- LDU de Quito's ratings45%+2
- Aucas's ratings49%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
LDU de Quito at home · Aucas away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: LDU de Quito 36, Aucas 36.
LDU de Quito score most often in the 46–60 minute window (12 goals); Aucas have let in 7 there.
Aucas score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); LDU de Quito have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
LDU de Quito
- at Macara29 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%
- vs Independiente del Valle6 Dec · Liga Prowin 33%
- at Universidad Catolica Quito13 Dec · Liga Prowin 26%
Aucas
- at Barcelona SC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 20%
- vs Universidad Catolica Quito6 Dec · Liga Prowin 34%
- at Macara13 Dec · Liga Prowin 18%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.