Independiente del Valle
vs
LDU de Quito
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Independiente del Valle 2–1 LDU de Quito
The model makes it 55% Independiente del Valle, 24% draw, 21% LDU de Quito — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Independiente del Valle 2.11, LDU de Quito 1.12.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Independiente del Valle: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Independiente del Valle are top on 77 points from 32 games; LDU de Quito are 3rd on 52 points from 32 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Independiente del Valle have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Macara.
- LDU de Quito are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Aucas.
- Last 6 meetings: LDU de Quito 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended LDU de Quito 0–2 Independiente del Valle.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente del Valle at 55% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
- L0-1away to Macara17 October 2026
- W2-1Aucas10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Libertad13 September 2026
- W3-1Macara5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barcelona SC3 September 2026
LDU de Quito
- D1-1away to Aucas17 October 2026
- W2-1Barcelona SC11 October 2026
- W2-1Universidad Catolica Quito20 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Cuenca13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Tecnico Universitario5 September 2026
What these results say
- Independiente del Valle conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Independiente del Valle scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Independiente del Valle had three goals or more.
- LDU de Quito went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- LDU de Quito scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- LDU de Quito conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 32 | 25 | 2 | 5 | 75 | 35 | +40 | 77 |
| 3 | LDU de Quito | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente del Valle vs LDU de Quito
- 8 August 2026LDU de Quito 0–2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 19 April 2026Independiente del Valle 0–2 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 10 December 2025Independiente del Valle 0–0 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
- 29 November 2025LDU de Quito 2–1 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 22 June 2025LDU de Quito 1–1 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 23 February 2025Independiente del Valle 1–1 LDU de QuitoLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Independiente del Valle and LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
GoalsAssists
- D. Reasco94
- C. González90
- M. Perelló84
LDU de Quito
GoalsAssists
- M. Estrada62
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Independiente del Valle carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.62 for LDU de Quito. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Independiente del Valle and 1.12 for LDU de Quito. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente del Valle rate 1.17 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; LDU de Quito rate 0.69 and 1.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Independiente del Valle a 100% chance of the title and LDU de Quito 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente del Valle the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Independiente del Valle against 1.12 for LDU de Quito. Independiente del Valle's attack/defence rating is 1.17/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.11 for LDU de Quito.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Independiente del Valle at home · LDU de Quito away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Independiente del Valle 32, LDU de Quito 32.
Independiente del Valle score most often in the 46–60 minute window (16 goals); LDU de Quito have let in 6 there.
LDU de Quito score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); Independiente del Valle have let in 11 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Independiente del Valle
- at Aucas8 Nov · Liga Prowin 44%
- vs Macara22 Nov · Liga Prowin 55%
- at Universidad Catolica Quito29 Nov · Liga Prowin 37%
LDU de Quito
- at Barcelona SC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 27%
- vs Aucas22 Nov · Liga Prowin 47%
- at Macara29 Nov · Liga Prowin 27%
- vs Independiente del Valle6 Dec · Liga Prowin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.