Heart of Midlothian
vs
Hibernian
League Cup prediction
Our model says: Heart of Midlothian 2–0 Hibernian
The model makes it 60% Heart of Midlothian, 23% draw, 17% Hibernian — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 2.11, Hibernian 0.89.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Heart of Midlothian: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Heart of Midlothian have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to St Mirren.
- Hibernian have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Falkirk.
- Last 6 meetings: Heart of Midlothian 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 September 2026, ended Hibernian 1–3 Heart of Midlothian.
Chance to go through
League Cup Semi-finals — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Heart of Midlothian65%
- Level after ninety minutes21%
- Hibernian14%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
More predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Heart of Midlothian vs Hibernian
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heart of Midlothian at 60% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Hibernian
Heart of Midlothian
- D1-1FC Nordsjaelland15 October 2026
- W5-0St Mirren10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Kilmarnock19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Falkirk15 September 2026
- W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
Hibernian
- L1-2Falkirk17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Dundee United10 October 2026
- D1-1Aberdeen19 September 2026
- L0-1Kilmarnock15 September 2026
- L1-2away to St Johnstone6 September 2026
What these results say
- Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Heart of Midlothian.
- Hibernian did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Hibernian
- 3 September 2026Hibernian 1–3 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 26 April 2026Hibernian 1–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 10 February 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–0 HibernianPremiership
- 27 December 2025Hibernian 3–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 4 October 2025Heart of Midlothian 1–0 HibernianPremiership
- 2 March 2025Hibernian 2–1 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Hibernian
Heart of Midlothian
No leading scorers listed yet.
Hibernian
GoalsAssists
- M. Boyle30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Heart of Midlothian carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.38 for Hibernian. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Heart of Midlothian and 0.89 for Hibernian. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heart of Midlothian rate 0.86 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hibernian rate 0.59 and 1.51.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heart of Midlothian the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Heart of Midlothian against 0.89 for Hibernian. Heart of Midlothian's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.51 for Hibernian.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Heart of Midlothian's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Hibernian's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Heart of Midlothian at home · Hibernian away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Heart of Midlothian 8, Hibernian 9.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Heart of Midlothian
- at FC Thun5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 41%
Hibernian
- at Aberdeen7 Nov · Premiershipwin 31%
- vs Dundee United21 Nov · Premiershipwin 45%
- at Motherwell28 Nov · Premiershipwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.