Championship Group - 31 · 1 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

AC Oulu vs KuPS Finnish Premier League prediction

OTC Stadion, Oulu

Our model says: AC Oulu 0–1 KuPS

The model makes it 27% AC Oulu, 27% draw, 46% KuPS — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: AC Oulu 1.12, KuPS 1.65.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Edge to KuPS: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published

Key facts

  • AC Oulu are 5th on 40 points from 28 games; KuPS are 3rd on 48 points from 27 games — Finnish Premier League.
  • AC Oulu have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Inter Turku.
  • KuPS have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Inter Turku.
  • Last 6 meetings: AC Oulu 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 October 2026, ended KuPS 0–1 AC Oulu.

More Finnish Premier League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: AC Oulu vs KuPS

55%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

AC Oulu win Draw KuPS win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 0–110%
  3. 1–210%
  4. 0–29%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 2–16%
  7. 1–06%

Scores read AC Oulu first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 40%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts KuPS at 46% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into AC Oulu vs KuPS

AC Oulu

  • W2-1away to Inter Turku17 October 2026
  • L3-4HJK Helsinki12 October 2026
  • W1-0away to KuPS8 October 2026
  • L0-1Inter Turku18 September 2026
  • L1-2Gnistan12 September 2026

KuPS

  • L0-1away to Inter Turku11 October 2026
  • L0-1AC Oulu8 October 2026
  • W2-0away to VPS19 September 2026
  • D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026

What these results say

  • AC Oulu scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • AC Oulu conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for KuPS had two goals or fewer.
  • KuPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Finnish Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5AC Oulu28124123234-240
3KuPS2713954126+1548

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: AC Oulu vs KuPS

  • 8 October 2026KuPS 0–1 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
  • 2 May 2026AC Oulu 2–0 KuPSFinnish Premier League
  • 22 April 2026KuPS 3–2 AC OuluFinnish Premier League
  • 28 February 2026AC Oulu 5–0 KuPSLeague Cup
  • 5 December 2025KuPS 1–2 AC OuluFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 July 2025AC Oulu 2–2 KuPSFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: AC Oulu and KuPS

AC Oulu

GoalsAssists

  • R. Riski30
  • J. Körkkö22

KuPS

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moreno50
  • J. Luyeye-Lutumba31
  • B. Armah30

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

AC Oulu carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.4 for KuPS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for AC Oulu and 1.65 for KuPS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

AC Oulu rate 0.45 in attack and 1.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; KuPS rate 0.60 and 1.49.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AC Oulu a 0% chance of the title and KuPS 19%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives KuPS the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for AC Oulu against 1.65 for KuPS. AC Oulu's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.49 for KuPS.

Season stats

AC OuluKuPS
28Matches27
12W 4D 12LRecord13W 9D 5L
32 1.1 per gameGoals scored41 1.5 per game
34 1.2 per gameGoals conceded26 1.0 per game
10 of 28Clean sheets8 of 27
8 of 28Failed to score6 of 27
3 of 3Penalties scored2 of 3
51 1.8 per gameYellow cards35 1.3 per game
4Red cards3
4-2-3-1 13×Usual shape4-2-3-1 20×

AC Oulu at home · KuPS away

14Played14
6W 2D 6LRecord7W 4D 3L
16–16Goals for – against20–11
5 of 14Clean sheets4 of 14

League matches only, Finnish Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Finnish Premier League matches this season: AC Oulu 28, KuPS 27.

AC Oulu scored 155687
KuPS conceded 624455

AC Oulu score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); KuPS have let in 5 there.

KuPS scored 8712536
AC Oulu conceded 729375

KuPS score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); AC Oulu have let in 9 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

Next match, by difficulty

AC Oulu

  • at HJK Helsinki8 Nov · Finnish Premier Leaguewin 18%

KuPS

  • vs Gent5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 19%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.