Torpedo Zhodino
vs
Belshina
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Torpedo Zhodino 2–1 Belshina
The model makes it 52% Torpedo Zhodino, 25% draw, 23% Belshina — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Torpedo Zhodino 1.84, Belshina 1.05.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Torpedo Zhodino: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Torpedo Zhodino are 9th on 30 points from 24 games; Belshina are 14th on 21 points from 23 games — Premier League.
- Torpedo Zhodino have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to ML Vitebsk.
- Belshina have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Naftan.
- Last 5 meetings: Torpedo Zhodino 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 20 June 2026, ended Belshina 0–2 Torpedo Zhodino.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Torpedo Zhodino vs Belshina
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Torpedo Zhodino at 52% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Torpedo Zhodino vs Belshina
Torpedo Zhodino
- L0-2away to ML Vitebsk15 October 2026
- W1-0away to FC Minsk10 October 2026
- L0-6away to FC Vitebsk20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Neman12 September 2026
- L1-2FC Gomel5 September 2026
Belshina
- L1-4away to Naftan10 October 2026
- W2-0FC Minsk18 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Vitebsk12 September 2026
- D2-2Neman6 September 2026
- D1-1away to ML Vitebsk2 September 2026
What these results say
- Torpedo Zhodino failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Torpedo Zhodino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belshina scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Belshina failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belshina conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 30 |
| 14 | Belshina | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 23 | 40 | -17 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Belshina
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 46% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Torpedo Zhodino vs Belshina
- 20 June 2026Belshina 0–2 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
- 19 August 2023Torpedo Zhodino 1–1 BelshinaPremier League
- 8 April 2023Belshina 0–0 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
- 11 September 2022Belshina 1–3 Torpedo ZhodinoPremier League
- 30 April 2022Torpedo Zhodino 1–3 BelshinaPremier League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Torpedo Zhodino carry a model rating of 6.12 against 5.99 for Belshina. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.84 goals for Torpedo Zhodino and 1.05 for Belshina. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Torpedo Zhodino rate 0.47 in attack and 2.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Belshina rate 0.43 and 2.41.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Torpedo Zhodino the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Torpedo Zhodino against 1.05 for Belshina. Torpedo Zhodino's attack/defence rating is 0.47/2.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.41 for Belshina.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Torpedo Zhodino at home · Belshina away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Torpedo Zhodino 24, Belshina 23.
Torpedo Zhodino score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Belshina have let in 16 there.
Belshina score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Torpedo Zhodino have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Torpedo Zhodino
- at Bate Borisov7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at FC Isloch Minsk R.21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- vs Baranovichi28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 51%
Belshina
- vs FC Isloch Minsk R.7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- at Baranovichi21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.