FC Luzern
vs
BSC Young Boys
Super League prediction
Our model says: FC Luzern 1–2 BSC Young Boys
The model makes it 32% FC Luzern, 21% draw, 47% BSC Young Boys — fair odds of 3.13, 4.76 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Luzern 2.00, BSC Young Boys 2.51.
Both teams to score: 80%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to BSC Young Boys: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. FC Luzern's rating is built from 48 Swiss Super League matches and BSC Young Boys's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 520 matches.
Key facts
- FC Luzern are 8th on 12 points from 10 games; BSC Young Boys are 2nd on 22 points from 10 games — Super League.
- FC Luzern have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to FC Lugano.
- BSC Young Boys are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Grasshoppers.
- Last 6 meetings: BSC Young Boys 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended BSC Young Boys 3–3 FC Luzern.
More Swiss Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys
Has the model earned this number?
It puts BSC Young Boys at 47% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys
FC Luzern
Super League
- L0-4away to FC Lugano10 October 2026
- W5-1Grasshoppers19 September 2026
- L2-4FC Basel 189313 September 2026
- D3-3away to BSC Young Boys5 September 2026
- W2-1FC Vaduz2 September 2026
BSC Young Boys
Super League
- W2-0away to Grasshoppers11 October 2026
- W3-2Servette FC19 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Lugano12 September 2026
- D3-3FC Luzern5 September 2026
- W4-2away to FC Zurich1 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Luzern conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Luzern had three goals or more.
- FC Luzern scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- BSC Young Boys went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- BSC Young Boys scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- BSC Young Boys conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | FC Luzern | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 12 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Luzern vs BSC Young Boys
- 5 September 2026BSC Young Boys 3–3 FC LuzernSuper League
- 4 March 2026FC Luzern 1–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 14 December 2025BSC Young Boys 2–0 FC LuzernSuper League
- 14 September 2025FC Luzern 1–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 15 May 2025BSC Young Boys 2–1 FC LuzernSuper League
- 13 April 2025FC Luzern 5–0 BSC Young BoysSuper League
Leading scorers: FC Luzern and BSC Young Boys
FC Luzern
GoalsAssists
- D. Mikołajewski43
BSC Young Boys
GoalsAssists
- S. Essende113
- C. Fassnacht51
- A. Sanches34
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Luzern carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.7 for BSC Young Boys. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.00 goals for FC Luzern and 2.51 for BSC Young Boys. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Luzern rate 0.73 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; BSC Young Boys rate 1.04 and 1.47.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Luzern a 0% chance of the title and BSC Young Boys 9.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives BSC Young Boys the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.00 expected goals for FC Luzern against 2.51 for BSC Young Boys. FC Luzern's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/1.47 for BSC Young Boys.
How the model reaches 47% for BSC Young Boys to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for BSC Young Boys to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, FC Luzern's ratings add 25 points and BSC Young Boys's ratings take away 9 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage31%−6
- FC Luzern's ratings56%+25
- BSC Young Boys's ratings47%−9
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Luzern at home · BSC Young Boys away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
FC LuzernBSC Young Boys
FC Luzern are 8th after 10 Super League matches (between 4th and 12th so far); BSC Young Boys are 2nd after 10 (between 1st and 2nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: FC Luzern 10, BSC Young Boys 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Luzern
- at FC Basel 189322 Nov · Super Leaguewin 35%
- vs FC Lugano29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 21%
- at FC Thun5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 34%
BSC Young Boys
- vs FC Thun21 Nov · Super Leaguewin 64%
- at FC Sion29 Nov · Super Leaguewin 34%
- at FC Vaduz5 Dec · Super Leaguewin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.