Hammarby FF
vs
IF Elfsborg
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Hammarby FF 1–0 IF Elfsborg
The model makes it 49% Hammarby FF, 27% draw, 24% IF Elfsborg — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Hammarby FF 1.71, IF Elfsborg 1.03.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Edge to Hammarby FF: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Hammarby FF's rating is built from 54 Allsvenskan matches and IF Elfsborg's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 676 matches.
Key facts
- Hammarby FF are 3rd on 46 points from 24 games; IF Elfsborg are 5th on 41 points from 24 games — Allsvenskan.
- Hammarby FF have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Halmstad.
- IF Elfsborg are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Sirius.
- Last 6 meetings: Hammarby FF 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 July 2026, ended IF Elfsborg 1–2 Hammarby FF.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hammarby FF at 49% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg
Hammarby FF
Allsvenskan
- W1-0away to Halmstad18 October 2026
- L0-1Djurgardens IF11 October 2026
- W1-0away to Degerfors IF20 September 2026
- W3-1IF Brommapojkarna13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Orgryte IS6 September 2026
IF Elfsborg
Allsvenskan
- D2-2away to Sirius18 October 2026
- W4-0Halmstad12 October 2026
- W2-1away to Djurgardens IF20 September 2026
- W1-0Kalmar FF13 September 2026
- L1-2away to IF Brommapojkarna6 September 2026
What these results say
- Hammarby FF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hammarby FF had two goals or fewer.
- IF Elfsborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for IF Elfsborg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hammarby FF | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 50 | 21 | +29 | 46 |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 37 | 24 | +13 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg
- 5 July 2026IF Elfsborg 1–2 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 9 November 2025Hammarby FF 3–0 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 31 May 2025IF Elfsborg 0–2 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 22 September 2024IF Elfsborg 0–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 15 April 2024Hammarby FF 3–0 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 13 August 2023Hammarby FF 1–0 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg
Hammarby FF
GoalsAssists
- P. Abraham143
- V. Lind911
IF Elfsborg
GoalsAssists
- L. Ãstman92
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hammarby FF carry a model rating of 6.72 against 6.55 for IF Elfsborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Hammarby FF and 1.03 for IF Elfsborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hammarby FF rate 0.82 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; IF Elfsborg rate 0.70 and 1.28.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hammarby FF a 4% chance of the title and IF Elfsborg 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hammarby FF the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Hammarby FF against 1.03 for IF Elfsborg. Hammarby FF's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.28 for IF Elfsborg.
How the model reaches 49% for Hammarby FF to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Hammarby FF to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Hammarby FF's ratings take away 7 points and IF Elfsborg's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Hammarby FF's ratings34%−7
- IF Elfsborg's ratings49%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hammarby FF at home · IF Elfsborg away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Hammarby FF 24, IF Elfsborg 24.
IF Elfsborg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Hammarby FF have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Hammarby FF
- vs IFK Goteborg23 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 61%
- at Vasteras SK FK29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 46%
IF Elfsborg
- at BK Hacken22 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 33%
- vs Gais29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.