Sirius
vs
AIK Stockholm
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Sirius 2–1 AIK Stockholm
The model makes it 58% Sirius, 21% draw, 21% AIK Stockholm — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Sirius 2.64, AIK Stockholm 1.42.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Sirius: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sirius are top on 54 points from 23 games; AIK Stockholm are 9th on 33 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
- Sirius are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Gais.
- AIK Stockholm have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 5-6 defeat at home to IF Brommapojkarna.
- Last 6 meetings: Sirius 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended AIK Stockholm 0–3 Sirius.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sirius vs AIK Stockholm
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sirius at 58% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sirius vs AIK Stockholm
Sirius
- W1-0away to Gais10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Orgryte IS19 September 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Vasteras SK FK5 September 2026
- L0-1Malmo FF31 August 2026
AIK Stockholm
- L5-6IF Brommapojkarna10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Halmstad20 September 2026
- D1-1Mjallby AIF16 September 2026
- L1-4Vasteras SK FK12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Malmo FF7 September 2026
What these results say
- Sirius won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sirius scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sirius had two goals or fewer.
- AIK Stockholm did not win any of these 5 matches.
- AIK Stockholm scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AIK Stockholm conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 53 | 28 | +25 | 54 |
| 9 | AIK Stockholm | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sirius
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 87% today
From our Allsvenskan season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sirius vs AIK Stockholm
- 30 May 2026AIK Stockholm 0–3 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 31 August 2025AIK Stockholm 2–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 19 June 2025AIK Stockholm 1–2 SiriusFriendlies Clubs
- 1 June 2025Sirius 3–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 25 September 2024Sirius 0–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 11 May 2024AIK Stockholm 1–3 SiriusAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Sirius and AIK Stockholm
Sirius
GoalsAssists
- R. Ure152
- I. Bjerkebo146
AIK Stockholm
GoalsAssists
- J. Hove82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sirius carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.38 for AIK Stockholm. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.64 goals for Sirius and 1.42 for AIK Stockholm. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sirius rate 0.87 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AIK Stockholm rate 0.71 and 1.86.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sirius a 87.1% chance of the title and AIK Stockholm 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sirius the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Sirius against 1.42 for AIK Stockholm. Sirius's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.86 for AIK Stockholm.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sirius at home · AIK Stockholm away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Sirius 23, AIK Stockholm 23.
AIK Stockholm score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Sirius have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sirius
- at Hammarby FF29 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 26%
- vs Halmstad3 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 72%
- at Kalmar FF8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 55%
- vs Djurgardens IF22 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 33%
AIK Stockholm
- vs IF Elfsborg27 Oct · Allsvenskanwin 32%
- at Gais2 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 24%
- vs BK Hacken8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 34%
- vs Degerfors IF21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.