Sirius
vs
Halmstad
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Sirius 2–0 Halmstad
The model makes it 70% Sirius, 19% draw, 11% Halmstad — fair odds of 1.43, 5.26 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Sirius 2.58, Halmstad 0.76.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,403 settled matches.
One-sided: Sirius are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Sirius's rating is built from 54 Allsvenskan matches and Halmstad's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 676 matches.
Key facts
- Sirius are top on 55 points from 24 games; Halmstad are bottom on 14 points from 24 games — Allsvenskan.
- Sirius are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to IF Elfsborg.
- Halmstad have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Hammarby FF.
- Last 6 meetings: Sirius 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 August 2026, ended Halmstad 0–2 Sirius.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sirius vs Halmstad
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sirius at 70% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 343 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.7%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Sirius vs Halmstad
Sirius
- D2-2IF Elfsborg18 October 2026
- W1-0away to Gais10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Orgryte IS19 September 2026
- W2-0Degerfors IF14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Vasteras SK FK5 September 2026
Halmstad
- L0-1Hammarby FF18 October 2026
- L0-4away to IF Elfsborg12 October 2026
- W2-1AIK Stockholm20 September 2026
- L1-2away to IFK Goteborg12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Degerfors IF5 September 2026
What these results say
- Sirius went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sirius scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sirius won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Halmstad conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Halmstad failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 30 | +25 | 55 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 45 | -29 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sirius vs Halmstad
- 3 August 2026Halmstad 0–2 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 9 August 2025Halmstad 0–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 27 April 2025Sirius 1–1 HalmstadAllsvenskan
- 19 October 2024Halmstad 3–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
- 1 April 2024Sirius 3–0 HalmstadAllsvenskan
- 2 September 2023Halmstad 2–1 SiriusAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Sirius and Halmstad
Sirius
GoalsAssists
- R. Ure152
- I. Bjerkebo146
Halmstad
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Sirius carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.07 for Halmstad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.58 goals for Sirius and 0.76 for Halmstad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sirius rate 0.87 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Halmstad rate 0.37 and 1.82.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sirius a 81.4% chance of the title and Halmstad 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sirius the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Sirius against 0.76 for Halmstad. Sirius's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.37/1.82 for Halmstad.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sirius at home · Halmstad away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Sirius 24, Halmstad 24.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sirius
- at Kalmar FF8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 53%
- vs Djurgardens IF22 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 31%
- at IFK Goteborg29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 46%
Halmstad
- vs Djurgardens IF8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 11%
- at IF Brommapojkarna22 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 19%
- vs Mjallby AIF29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.