Regular Season - 25 · 23 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF Allsvenskan prediction

Borås Arena, Boras

Our model says: IF Elfsborg 1–0 Malmo FF

The model makes it 45% IF Elfsborg, 27% draw, 28% Malmo FF — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: IF Elfsborg 1.61, Malmo FF 1.16.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • IF Elfsborg are 4th on 40 points from 23 games; Malmo FF are 6th on 36 points from 23 games — Allsvenskan.
  • IF Elfsborg are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Halmstad.
  • Malmo FF have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Kalmar FF.
  • Last 6 meetings: Malmo FF 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended Malmo FF 1–2 IF Elfsborg.

More Allsvenskan predictions

All Allsvenskan predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF

55%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

IF Elfsborg win Draw Malmo FF win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 0–07%
  6. 1–27%
  7. 0–17%

Scores read IF Elfsborg first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 41%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts IF Elfsborg at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF

IF Elfsborg

  • W4-0Halmstad12 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Djurgardens IF20 September 2026
  • W1-0Kalmar FF13 September 2026
  • L1-2away to IF Brommapojkarna6 September 2026
  • W2-0Degerfors IF29 August 2026

Malmo FF

  • W1-0Kalmar FF12 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK19 September 2026
  • W4-1Orgryte IS13 September 2026
  • D0-0AIK Stockholm7 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Sirius31 August 2026

What these results say

  • IF Elfsborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • IF Elfsborg won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Malmo FF had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4IF Elfsborg2311753522+1340
6Malmo FF2311393833+536

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

IF Elfsborg

Chance to finish in the top four · 46% today

Win 59%
Draw 40%
Defeat 29%

Malmo FF

Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today

Win 22%
Draw 9%
Defeat 4%

From our Allsvenskan season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.

Head-to-head: IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF

  • 26 July 2026Malmo FF 1–2 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 14 September 2025IF Elfsborg 2–2 Malmo FFAllsvenskan
  • 7 April 2025Malmo FF 2–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 10 March 2025Malmo FF 1–0 IF ElfsborgSvenska Cupen
  • 28 May 2024Malmo FF 2–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
  • 5 May 2024IF Elfsborg 3–1 Malmo FFAllsvenskan

Leading scorers: IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF

IF Elfsborg

GoalsAssists

  • L. Östman82

Malmo FF

GoalsAssists

  • E. Botheim103

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

IF Elfsborg carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.46 for Malmo FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.16 for Malmo FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

IF Elfsborg rate 0.68 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Malmo FF rate 0.67 and 1.45.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives IF Elfsborg a 0.1% chance of the title and Malmo FF 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives IF Elfsborg the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for IF Elfsborg against 1.16 for Malmo FF. IF Elfsborg's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.45 for Malmo FF.

Season stats

IF ElfsborgMalmo FF
23Matches23
11W 7D 5LRecord11W 3D 9L
35 1.5 per gameGoals scored38 1.7 per game
22 1.0 per gameGoals conceded33 1.4 per game
8 of 23Clean sheets8 of 23
1 of 23Failed to score3 of 23
2 of 2Penalties scored0 of 1
30 1.3 per gameYellow cards50 2.2 per game
0Red cards1
4-2-3-1 13×Usual shape4-1-4-1 8×

IF Elfsborg at home · Malmo FF away

12Played11
7W 3D 2LRecord6W 2D 3L
21–9Goals for – against13–13
6 of 12Clean sheets5 of 11

League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Allsvenskan matches this season: IF Elfsborg 23, Malmo FF 23.

IF Elfsborg scored 6334710
Malmo FF conceded 847646

IF Elfsborg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Malmo FF have let in 6 there.

Malmo FF scored 376884
IF Elfsborg conceded 332457

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

IF Elfsborg

Malmo FF

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.