Botafogo SP
vs
Londrina
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Botafogo SP 2–1 Londrina
The model makes it 45% Botafogo SP, 26% draw, 29% Londrina — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Botafogo SP 1.74, Londrina 1.28.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Botafogo SP's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie B matches and Londrina's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Botafogo SP are 13th on 44 points from 34 games; Londrina are 18th on 32 points from 34 games — Serie B.
- Botafogo SP are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to CRB.
- Londrina have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Cuiaba.
- Last 6 meetings: Botafogo SP 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended Londrina 0–0 Botafogo SP.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Botafogo SP vs Londrina
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botafogo SP at 45% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Botafogo SP vs Londrina
Botafogo SP
Serie B
- W1-0away to CRB18 October 2026
- W1-0Ceara13 October 2026
- W2-1away to Operario-PR7 October 2026
- L0-1Vila Nova3 October 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta29 September 2026
Londrina
Serie B
- W1-0Cuiaba20 October 2026
- D2-2away to Athletic Club MG13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Avai7 October 2026
- L0-2Criciuma2 October 2026
- L0-2away to Vila Nova25 September 2026
What these results say
- Botafogo SP won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo SP scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Botafogo SP had two goals or fewer.
- Londrina failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Londrina conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Botafogo SP | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 44 |
| 18 | Londrina | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 43 | 49 | -6 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo SP vs Londrina
- 18 July 2026Londrina 0–0 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 25 November 2023Botafogo SP 0–1 LondrinaSerie B
- 24 July 2023Londrina 1–2 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 16 November 2019Londrina 1–1 Botafogo SPSerie B
- 20 August 2019Botafogo SP 2–1 LondrinaSerie B
- 4 August 2013Londrina 0–0 Botafogo SPSerie D
Leading scorers: Botafogo SP and Londrina
Botafogo SP
GoalsAssists
- Everton Morelli92
- Hygor90
Londrina
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Santos113
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Botafogo SP carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.31 for Londrina. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Botafogo SP and 1.28 for Londrina. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botafogo SP rate 0.55 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Londrina rate 0.65 and 1.95.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botafogo SP the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Botafogo SP against 1.28 for Londrina. Botafogo SP's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.95 for Londrina.
How the model reaches 45% for Botafogo SP to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Botafogo SP to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Botafogo SP's ratings take away 26 points and Londrina's ratings add 27 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Botafogo SP's ratings18%−26
- Londrina's ratings45%+27
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Botafogo SP at home · Londrina away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Botafogo SP 34, Londrina 34.
Botafogo SP score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Londrina have let in 13 there.
Londrina score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Botafogo SP have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Botafogo SP
- at Juventude14 Nov · Serie Bwin 19%
Londrina
- vs Nautico Recife14 Nov · Serie Bwin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.