Vitoria
vs
Fluminense
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Vitoria 0–1 Fluminense
The model makes it 33% Vitoria, 29% draw, 38% Fluminense — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Vitoria 1.21, Fluminense 1.34.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 939 settled matches.
Edge to Fluminense: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Vitoria's rating is built from 69 Brazilian Serie A matches and Fluminense's from 69, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,069 matches.
Key facts
- Vitoria are 13th on 37 points from 31 games; Fluminense are 5th on 51 points from 31 games — Serie A.
- Vitoria have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Corinthians.
- Fluminense have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Santos.
- Last 6 meetings: Vitoria 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Fluminense 2–2 Vitoria.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vitoria vs Fluminense
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fluminense at 38% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 3,435 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vitoria vs Fluminense
Vitoria
Serie A
- D1-1away to Corinthians19 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sao Paulo11 October 2026
- W4-0Chapecoense7 October 2026
- L1-3Cruzeiro20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Mirassol13 September 2026
Fluminense
Serie A
- L1-2Santos18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Flamengo11 October 2026
- W4-0Coritiba9 October 2026
- W3-1away to Corinthians20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Atletico Mineiro12 September 2026
What these results say
- Vitoria scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vitoria failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vitoria conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fluminense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fluminense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fluminense had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Vitoria | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 37 |
| 5 | Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 51 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitoria vs Fluminense
- 9 May 2026Fluminense 2–2 VitoriaSerie A
- 20 September 2025Vitoria 0–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 20 April 2025Fluminense 1–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 26 October 2024Vitoria 2–1 FluminenseSerie A
- 27 June 2024Fluminense 0–1 VitoriaSerie A
- 6 September 2018Fluminense 0–0 VitoriaSerie A
Leading scorers: Vitoria and Fluminense
Vitoria
GoalsAssists
- Rene101
Fluminense
GoalsAssists
- John Kennedy91
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Vitoria carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.83 for Fluminense. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Vitoria and 1.34 for Fluminense. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vitoria rate 0.74 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fluminense rate 1.00 and 1.04.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fluminense the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Vitoria against 1.34 for Fluminense. Vitoria's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.04 for Fluminense.
How the model reaches 38% for Fluminense to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fluminense to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, Vitoria's ratings add 11 points and Fluminense's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage28%−8
- Vitoria's ratings39%+11
- Fluminense's ratings38%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vitoria at home · Fluminense away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Vitoria 31, Fluminense 31.
Vitoria score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Fluminense have let in 9 there.
Fluminense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Vitoria have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Vitoria
- vs RB Bragantino18 Nov · Serie Awin 38%
- at Internacional22 Nov · Serie Awin 26%
- vs Santos29 Nov · Serie Awin 36%
Fluminense
- at Sao Paulo18 Nov · Serie Awin 34%
- vs Mirassol22 Nov · Serie Awin 51%
- vs Cruzeiro29 Nov · Serie Awin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.