Gais
vs
AIK Stockholm
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Gais 2–1 AIK Stockholm
The model makes it 47% Gais, 26% draw, 27% AIK Stockholm — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Gais 1.78, AIK Stockholm 1.21.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Gais's rating is built from 54 Allsvenskan matches and AIK Stockholm's from 54, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 675 matches.
Key facts
- Gais are 10th on 30 points from 24 games; AIK Stockholm are 9th on 34 points from 24 games — Allsvenskan.
- Gais have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Orgryte IS.
- AIK Stockholm have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to IFK Goteborg.
- Last 6 meetings: Gais 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 July 2026, ended AIK Stockholm 2–0 Gais.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gais vs AIK Stockholm
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gais at 47% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gais vs AIK Stockholm
Gais
- L2-4away to Orgryte IS18 October 2026
- L0-1Sirius10 October 2026
- W3-0away to Mjallby AIF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Djurgardens IF14 September 2026
- D0-0BK Hacken5 September 2026
AIK Stockholm
- D2-2IFK Goteborg17 October 2026
- L5-6IF Brommapojkarna10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Halmstad20 September 2026
- D1-1Mjallby AIF16 September 2026
- L1-4Vasteras SK FK12 September 2026
What these results say
- Gais failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- AIK Stockholm did not win any of these 5 matches.
- AIK Stockholm scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AIK Stockholm conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gais | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 30 |
| 9 | AIK Stockholm | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gais vs AIK Stockholm
- 18 July 2026AIK Stockholm 2–0 GaisAllsvenskan
- 14 March 2026Gais 3–2 AIK StockholmSvenska Cupen
- 28 September 2025AIK Stockholm 1–1 GaisAllsvenskan
- 31 March 2025Gais 0–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 29 July 2024AIK Stockholm 0–1 GaisAllsvenskan
- 22 July 2024Gais 2–0 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Gais and AIK Stockholm
Gais
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.
AIK Stockholm
GoalsAssists
- J. Hove83
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gais carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.38 for AIK Stockholm. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.78 goals for Gais and 1.21 for AIK Stockholm. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gais rate 0.58 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AIK Stockholm rate 0.72 and 1.89.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AIK Stockholm, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gais the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Gais against 1.21 for AIK Stockholm. Gais's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.89 for AIK Stockholm.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gais at home · AIK Stockholm away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Gais 24, AIK Stockholm 24.
Gais score most often in the 46–60 minute window (10 goals); AIK Stockholm have let in 6 there.
AIK Stockholm score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Gais have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Gais
- at Degerfors IF7 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 42%
- vs Vasteras SK FK21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 41%
- at IF Elfsborg29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 28%
AIK Stockholm
- vs BK Hacken8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 32%
- vs Degerfors IF21 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 49%
- at Kalmar FF29 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.