Club Queretaro
vs
Necaxa
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Club Queretaro 1–0 Necaxa
The model makes it 45% Club Queretaro, 28% draw, 27% Necaxa — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Club Queretaro 1.51, Necaxa 1.03.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Club Queretaro's rating is built from 49 Liga MX matches and Necaxa's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 820 matches.
Key facts
- Club Queretaro are 12th on 20 points from 15 games; Necaxa are 17th on 13 points from 16 games — Liga MX.
- Club Queretaro have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Puebla.
- Necaxa have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Club Tijuana.
- Last 6 meetings: Necaxa 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Club Queretaro 3–1 Necaxa.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Club Queretaro vs Necaxa
Has the model earned this number?
Club Queretaro at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Club Queretaro vs Necaxa
Club Queretaro
Liga MX
- L0-2Puebla9 November 2026
- L1-3away to FC Juarez31 October 2026
- L1-3Cruz Azul26 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico San Luis21 October 2026
- L0-5away to Santos Laguna17 October 2026
Necaxa
Liga MX
- W1-0Club Tijuana7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Santos Laguna1 November 2026
- D1-1FC Juarez24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Guadalajara Chivas21 October 2026
- L0-2Atlas17 October 2026
What these results say
- Club Queretaro did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Club Queretaro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Club Queretaro had three goals or more.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Necaxa had two goals or fewer.
- Necaxa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 20 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Club Queretaro
Chance to finish in the top eight · 25% today
Necaxa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 91% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Club Queretaro vs Necaxa
- 11 April 2026Club Queretaro 3–1 NecaxaLiga MX
- 19 July 2025Necaxa 3–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 29 March 2025Necaxa 2–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 30 December 2024Club Queretaro 2–2 NecaxaFriendlies Clubs
- 28 September 2024Club Queretaro 0–0 NecaxaLiga MX
- 3 May 2024Necaxa 1–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club Queretaro and Necaxa
Club Queretaro
GoalsAssists
- A. Ávila60
Necaxa
GoalsAssists
- J. Carranza72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Queretaro the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Club Queretaro against 1.03 for Necaxa. Club Queretaro's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.43 for Necaxa.
How the model reaches 45% for Club Queretaro to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Club Queretaro to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Club Queretaro's ratings add 2 points and Necaxa's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Both sides at this match's level42%−3
- Club Queretaro's ratings44%+2
- Necaxa's ratings45%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Club Queretaro at home · Necaxa away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Club QueretaroNecaxa
Club Queretaro are 12th after 15 Liga MX matches (between 3rd and 14th so far); Necaxa are 17th after 16 (between 1st and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Club Queretaro 15, Necaxa 16.
Club Queretaro score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Necaxa have let in 7 there.
Necaxa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Club Queretaro have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.