FC Juarez
vs
Atlas
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: FC Juarez 1–2 Atlas
The model makes it 36% FC Juarez, 26% draw, 38% Atlas — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Juarez 1.56, Atlas 1.61.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: FC Juarez and Atlas are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. FC Juarez's rating is built from 54 Liga MX matches and Atlas's from 52, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 820 matches.
Key facts
- FC Juarez are bottom on 11 points from 16 games; Atlas are 5th on 27 points from 16 games — Liga MX.
- FC Juarez are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Atletico San Luis.
- Atlas have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to CF Pachuca.
- Last 6 meetings: Atlas 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended FC Juarez 3–1 Atlas.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Juarez vs Atlas
Has the model earned this number?
Atlas at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Juarez vs Atlas
FC Juarez
Liga MX
- W1-0away to Atletico San Luis7 November 2026
- W3-1Club Queretaro31 October 2026
- D1-1away to Necaxa24 October 2026
- L0-1Atlante FC21 October 2026
- L0-5away to Cruz Azul18 October 2026
Atlas
Liga MX
- L1-4CF Pachuca7 November 2026
- W1-0away to Atletico San Luis31 October 2026
- W4-3Puebla25 October 2026
- L2-5Club America22 October 2026
- W2-0away to Necaxa17 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Juarez conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 11 |
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Juarez vs Atlas
- 28 February 2026FC Juarez 3–1 AtlasLiga MX
- 4 October 2025Atlas 3–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 5 April 2025Atlas 1–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 6 July 2024FC Juarez 2–2 AtlasLiga MX
- 29 January 2024Atlas 2–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 23 September 2023FC Juarez 1–2 AtlasLiga MX
Leading scorers: FC Juarez and Atlas
FC Juarez
GoalsAssists
- Ó. Estupiñán80
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- F. Monzón51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
How the call on FC Juarez v Atlas has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 34% / 26% / 40% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 36% / 26% / 38%: the biggest move is FC Juarez's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- FC Juarez win36%▲ +2
- Draw26%=
- Atlas win38%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atlas the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC Juarez against 1.61 for Atlas. FC Juarez's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.48 for Atlas.
How the model reaches 38% for Atlas to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Atlas to win. Then home advantage takes away 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, FC Juarez's ratings add 4 points and Atlas's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage29%−8
- Both sides at this match's level30%+1
- FC Juarez's ratings34%+4
- Atlas's ratings38%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Juarez at home · Atlas away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
FC JuarezAtlas
FC Juarez are 18th after 16 Liga MX matches (between 17th and 18th so far); Atlas are 5th after 16 (between 2nd and 7th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: FC Juarez 16, Atlas 16.
FC Juarez score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Atlas have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.