CF Pachuca
vs
Toluca
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: CF Pachuca 2–1 Toluca
The model makes it 43% CF Pachuca, 26% draw, 31% Toluca — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: CF Pachuca 1.69, Toluca 1.36.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. CF Pachuca's rating is built from 56 Liga MX matches and Toluca's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 820 matches.
Key facts
- CF Pachuca are 8th on 22 points from 16 games; Toluca are 4th on 27 points from 16 games — Liga MX.
- CF Pachuca are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Atlas.
- Toluca are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 4-0 win at home to Monterrey.
- Last 6 meetings: CF Pachuca 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended CF Pachuca 2–0 Toluca.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: CF Pachuca vs Toluca
Has the model earned this number?
CF Pachuca at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into CF Pachuca vs Toluca
CF Pachuca
Liga MX
- W4-1away to Atlas7 November 2026
- W3-0Tigres UANL31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Club America26 October 2026
- L1-2Cruz Azul22 October 2026
- L1-2away to Monterrey19 October 2026
Toluca
Liga MX
- W4-0Monterrey8 November 2026
- D2-2away to Club America1 November 2026
- D1-1away to Leon24 October 2026
- D2-2Club Tijuana22 October 2026
- D1-1Atletico San Luis18 October 2026
What these results say
- CF Pachuca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for CF Pachuca had three goals or more.
- CF Pachuca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toluca went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Toluca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toluca failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | CF Pachuca | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
CF Pachuca
Chance to finish in the top eight · 46% today
From our Liga MX season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: CF Pachuca vs Toluca
- 10 May 2026CF Pachuca 2–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 4 May 2026Toluca 0–1 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 22 March 2026CF Pachuca 1–1 TolucaLiga MX
- 27 October 2025Toluca 2–2 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 29 March 2025Toluca 3–2 CF PachucaLiga MX
- 18 September 2024CF Pachuca 2–2 TolucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: CF Pachuca and Toluca
CF Pachuca
GoalsAssists
- S. Rondón162
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas81
- Paulinho50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Toluca (fourth, with CF Pachuca eighth), while our numbers lean to CF Pachuca. CF Pachuca rate 0.85 in attack and 1.08 in defence, Toluca 0.97 and 1.15 (lower is better in defence), so CF Pachuca have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 5-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CF Pachuca the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for CF Pachuca against 1.36 for Toluca. CF Pachuca's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/1.15 for Toluca.
How the model reaches 43% for CF Pachuca to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for CF Pachuca to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, CF Pachuca's ratings take away 2 points and Toluca's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- CF Pachuca's ratings43%−2
- Toluca's ratings43%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
CF Pachuca at home · Toluca away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
CF PachucaToluca
CF Pachuca are 8th after 16 Liga MX matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Toluca are 4th after 16 (between 1st and 6th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: CF Pachuca 16, Toluca 16.
CF Pachuca score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Toluca have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.