Puebla
vs
Atletico San Luis
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Puebla 1–0 Atletico San Luis
The model makes it 40% Puebla, 29% draw, 31% Atletico San Luis — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Puebla 1.38, Atletico San Luis 1.17.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Puebla's rating is built from 50 Liga MX matches and Atletico San Luis's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 820 matches.
Key facts
- Puebla are 13th on 19 points from 16 games; Atletico San Luis are 14th on 19 points from 16 games — Liga MX.
- Puebla have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Club Queretaro.
- Atletico San Luis have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to FC Juarez.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico San Luis 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Atletico San Luis 0–1 Puebla.
More Liga MX predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Puebla vs Atletico San Luis
Has the model earned this number?
Puebla at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Puebla vs Atletico San Luis
Puebla
Liga MX
- W2-0away to Club Queretaro9 November 2026
- L1-2Pumas UNAM31 October 2026
- L3-4away to Atlas25 October 2026
- L1-4Monterrey22 October 2026
- D0-0away to Club Tijuana17 October 2026
Atletico San Luis
Liga MX
- L0-1FC Juarez7 November 2026
- L0-1Atlas31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Atlante FC24 October 2026
- W2-1Club Queretaro21 October 2026
- D1-1away to Toluca18 October 2026
What these results say
- Puebla failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puebla scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico San Luis conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico San Luis had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 19 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Puebla vs Atletico San Luis
- 28 February 2026Atletico San Luis 0–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 16 August 2025Puebla 0–2 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 18 January 2025Puebla 1–2 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
- 2 November 2024Atletico San Luis 2–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 2 March 2024Atletico San Luis 4–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 19 August 2023Puebla 1–2 Atletico San LuisLiga MX
How the call on Puebla v Atletico San Luis has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Puebla's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Puebla win40%▲ +2
- Draw29%=
- Atletico San Luis win31%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Puebla the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Puebla against 1.17 for Atletico San Luis. Puebla's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.31 for Atletico San Luis.
How the model reaches 40% for Puebla to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Puebla to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Puebla's ratings take away 2 points and Atletico San Luis's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Both sides at this match's level43%−2
- Puebla's ratings41%−2
- Atletico San Luis's ratings40%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Puebla at home · Atletico San Luis away
League matches only, Liga MX, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
PueblaAtletico San Luis
Puebla are 13th after 16 Liga MX matches (between 4th and 14th so far); Atletico San Luis are 14th after 16 (between 10th and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga MX matches this season: Puebla 16, Atletico San Luis 16.
Puebla score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Atletico San Luis have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.