Athletic Club vs Sport Recife Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Athletic Club 1-2 Sport Recife.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Athletic Club, 26% draw, 19% Sport Recife — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Published
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Athletic Club at 55% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 706 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Athletic Club vs Sport Recife
Line-ups
- 26Thiago CoutoG
- 27ClaudinhoD
- 5Marcelo BenevenutoD
- 3Marcelo AjulD
- 76RaíD
- 6BielM
- 29Willian OliveiraM
- 30Chrystian BarlettaM
- 8Juan AlanoM
- 31MarlonM
- 19Neto PessoaF
- 40Matheus MirandaD
- 21BrennoG
- 96EdsonD
- 9PerottiF
- 77DuduF
- 25ClaysonM
- 7Patrick de PaulaM
- 10C. de PenaM
- 28HabraãoD
Form going into Athletic Club vs Sport Recife
Athletic Club
- D0-0Alaves19 September 2026
- D1-1Elche12 September 2026
- W3-0Atletico Madrid5 September 2026
- W2-0away to Celta Vigo30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Barcelona27 August 2026
Sport Recife
- L1-3away to Nautico Recife26 September 2026
- W2-1Juventude19 September 2026
- L1-2away to CRB16 September 2026
- W2-0Ponte Preta11 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Athletic Club had two goals or fewer.
- Sport Recife scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sport Recife conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sport Recife had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Athletic Club and Sport Recife in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Athletic Club | La Liga | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | Serie B | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 47 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: La Liga · Serie B
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Sport Recife
- 1 October 2026Athletic Club MG 1–2 Sport RecifeSerie B
- 11 June 2026Sport Recife 1–1 Athletic Club MGSerie B
- 18 March 2026Sport Recife 1–3 Athletic Club MGCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Athletic Club and Sport Recife
Athletic Club
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Sport Recife
- Chrystian Barletta11 goals3 assists
- Perotti11 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.