Estac Troyes
vs
Le Mans
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Estac Troyes 1–2 Le Mans
The model makes it 33% Estac Troyes, 26% draw, 41% Le Mans — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Estac Troyes 1.43, Le Mans 1.67.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Le Mans: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Estac Troyes are 17th on 4 points from 6 games; Le Mans are 15th on 6 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- Estac Troyes are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Marseille.
- Le Mans have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Toulouse.
- Last 5 meetings: Estac Troyes 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended Estac Troyes 0–2 Le Mans.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Estac Troyes vs Le Mans
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Le Mans at 41% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 1,804 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Estac Troyes vs Le Mans
Estac Troyes
- L0-2Marseille11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Angers19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Lille13 September 2026
- L2-6Strasbourg6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lorient29 August 2026
Le Mans
- L0-3Toulouse16 October 2026
- L1-3away to Paris Saint Germain10 October 2026
- W2-1Lorient19 September 2026
- D2-2Lens13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Nice5 September 2026
What these results say
- Estac Troyes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Estac Troyes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Le Mans conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Le Mans failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Le Mans scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 15 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Estac Troyes vs Le Mans
Estac Troyes and Le Mans have met 5 times in the records we hold, Estac Troyes has won 2 of them to Le Mans's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Le Mans won the last one 2–0 on 31 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Le Mans | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 |
Between them these 5 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.80 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Jan 2026
Ligue 2Estac Troyes 0–2 Le Mans - 3 Oct 2025
Ligue 2Le Mans 2–2 Estac Troyes - 18 Oct 2019
Ligue 2Estac Troyes 2–1 Le Mans - 24 Feb 2012
Ligue 2Estac Troyes 2–1 Le Mans - 26 Sep 2011
Ligue 2Le Mans 1–1 Estac Troyes
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 0.64 | 1.38 |
| Le Mans | 0.88 | 1.33 |
Leading scorers: Estac Troyes and Le Mans
Estac Troyes
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Le Mans
GoalsAssists
- L. Mafouta41
- A. Bourabaa32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Estac Troyes carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.65 for Le Mans. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Estac Troyes and 1.67 for Le Mans. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Estac Troyes rate 0.64 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Le Mans rate 0.88 and 1.33.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Le Mans the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Estac Troyes against 1.67 for Le Mans. Estac Troyes's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.33 for Le Mans.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Estac Troyes at home · Le Mans away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Estac TroyesLe Mans
Estac Troyes are 17th after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 2nd and 17th so far); Le Mans are 15th after 7 (between 3rd and 15th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Estac Troyes 6, Le Mans 7.
Le Mans score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Estac Troyes have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Estac Troyes
- at Paris Saint Germain7 Nov · Ligue 1win 6%
- vs Le Havre20 Nov · Ligue 1win 31%
- at Nice28 Nov · Ligue 1win 23%
Le Mans
- vs Monaco8 Nov · Ligue 1win 24%
- at Marseille22 Nov · Ligue 1win 17%
- vs Lille28 Nov · Ligue 1win 22%
- at Paris FC5 Dec · Ligue 1win 15%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.