Bourg-en-bresse 01
vs
Le Puy Foot
Ligue 3 prediction
Our model says: Bourg-en-bresse 01 0–1 Le Puy Foot
The model makes it 24% Bourg-en-bresse 01, 29% draw, 47% Le Puy Foot — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (13%).
Expected goals: Bourg-en-bresse 01 0.88, Le Puy Foot 1.45.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,126 settled matches.
One-sided: Le Puy Foot are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Bourg-en-bresse 01's rating is built from 42 Ligue 3 matches and Le Puy Foot's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 are bottom on 5 points from 10 games; Le Puy Foot are 6th on 16 points from 10 games — Ligue 3.
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Fleury 91.
- Le Puy Foot have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Aubagne.
- Last 6 meetings: Bourg-en-bresse 01 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 February 2026, ended Bourg-en-bresse 01 1–0 Le Puy Foot.
More Ligue 3 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Le Puy Foot
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Le Puy Foot at 47% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Le Puy Foot
Bourg-en-bresse 01
Ligue 3
- L0-1Fleury 9117 October 2026
- L0-2away to Rouen3 October 2026
- D1-1Concarneau26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gobelins19 September 2026
- L0-1Bastia12 September 2026
Le Puy Foot
Ligue 3
- W1-0away to Aubagne17 October 2026
- W1-0Thionville Lusitanos3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Valenciennes26 September 2026
- W4-1Villefranche19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Quevilly12 September 2026
What these results say
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bourg-en-bresse 01 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Bourg-en-bresse 01 had two goals or fewer.
- Le Puy Foot scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 5 |
| 6 | Le Puy Foot | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Le Puy Foot
- 6 February 2026Bourg-en-bresse 01 1–0 Le Puy FootLigue 3
- 29 August 2025Le Puy Foot 1–1 Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3
- 23 July 2025Le Puy Foot 1–3 Bourg-en-bresse 01Friendlies Clubs
- 14 April 2023Bourg-en-bresse 01 2–0 Le Puy FootLigue 3
- 25 November 2022Le Puy Foot 0–2 Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3
- 20 July 2021Le Puy Foot 1–2 Bourg-en-bresse 01Friendlies Clubs
The two sides
Bourg-en-bresse 01 carry a model rating of 5.85 against 6.23 for Le Puy Foot. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.88 goals for Bourg-en-bresse 01 and 1.45 for Le Puy Foot. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bourg-en-bresse 01 rate 0.30 in attack and 2.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Le Puy Foot rate 0.52 and 1.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bourg-en-bresse 01 a 0% chance of the title and Le Puy Foot 4.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Le Puy Foot the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Bourg-en-bresse 01 against 1.45 for Le Puy Foot. Bourg-en-bresse 01's attack/defence rating is 0.3/2.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.81 for Le Puy Foot.
How the model reaches 47% for Le Puy Foot to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Le Puy Foot to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Bourg-en-bresse 01's ratings add 50 points and Le Puy Foot's ratings take away 32 points, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Bourg-en-bresse 01's ratings79%+50
- Le Puy Foot's ratings47%−32
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Bourg-en-bresse 01 at home · Le Puy Foot away
League matches only, Ligue 3, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 3 matches this season: Bourg-en-bresse 01 10, Le Puy Foot 10.
Le Puy Foot score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Bourg-en-bresse 01 have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Bourg-en-bresse 01
- at Versailles21 Nov · Ligue 3win 13%
- vs Amiens5 Dec · Ligue 3win 16%
- at Cannes12 Dec · Ligue 3win 11%
- vs Orleans16 Jan · Ligue 3win 29%
Le Puy Foot
- vs Gobelins21 Nov · Ligue 3win 52%
- at Concarneau5 Dec · Ligue 3win 32%
- vs Rouen12 Dec · Ligue 3win 40%
- at Fleury 9116 Jan · Ligue 3win 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.