Gent
vs
Anderlecht
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Gent 1–0 Anderlecht
The model makes it 49% Gent, 28% draw, 23% Anderlecht — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gent 1.55, Anderlecht 0.91.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Gent: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Gent are top on 22 points from 8 games; Anderlecht are 5th on 16 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Gent are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Zulte Waregem.
- Anderlecht are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Cercle Brugge.
- Last 6 meetings: Anderlecht 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Gent 1–1 Anderlecht.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gent vs Anderlecht
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gent at 49% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gent vs Anderlecht
Gent
- W2-0away to Zulte Waregem10 October 2026
- W2-1Standard Liege18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Genk13 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cercle Brugge6 September 2026
- W1-0OH Leuven3 September 2026
Anderlecht
- W2-1away to Cercle Brugge10 October 2026
- W3-0Zulte Waregem19 September 2026
- W1-0away to KV Mechelen11 September 2026
- D0-0Genk6 September 2026
- W1-0Kortrijk3 September 2026
What these results say
- Gent went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gent scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gent won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Anderlecht went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Anderlecht won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Anderlecht scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 22 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Gent
Chance to finish in the top four · 82% today
Anderlecht
Chance to finish in the top four · 20% today
From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Gent vs Anderlecht
- 10 May 2026Gent 1–1 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
- 12 April 2026Anderlecht 3–1 GentJupiler Pro League
- 18 January 2026Gent 4–2 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
- 15 January 2026Anderlecht 1–0 GentCup
- 23 September 2025Anderlecht 1–0 GentJupiler Pro League
- 27 April 2025Gent 0–1 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Gent and Anderlecht
Gent
GoalsAssists
- J. Y. Vergara Ortega30
- I. Cisse30
Anderlecht
GoalsAssists
- T. Bentayeb31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gent carry a model rating of 6.98 against 6.82 for Anderlecht. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Gent and 0.91 for Anderlecht. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gent rate 0.97 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Anderlecht rate 0.93 and 0.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gent a 7.5% chance of the title and Anderlecht 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gent the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Gent against 0.91 for Anderlecht. Gent's attack/defence rating is 0.97/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/0.99 for Anderlecht.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gent at home · Anderlecht away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
GentAnderlecht
Gent are 1st after 8 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Anderlecht are 5th after 8 (between 5th and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Gent 8, Anderlecht 8.
Gent score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Anderlecht have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Gent
- at Lommel United1 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 36%
- at KuPS5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 56%
- vs Kortrijk8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 73%
Anderlecht
- vs KVC Westerlo31 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 46%
- vs Red Bull Salzburg5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 47%
- at Club Brugge KV8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 13%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.