Alianza Valledupar
vs
Llaneros
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Llaneros
The model makes it 40% Alianza Valledupar, 30% draw, 30% Llaneros — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Alianza Valledupar 1.24, Llaneros 1.01.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,296 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 26 October 2026. Alianza Valledupar's rating is built from 74 Colombian Primera A matches and Llaneros's from 74, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,237 matches.
Key facts
- Alianza Valledupar are 12th on 18 points from 15 games; Llaneros are 14th on 17 points from 15 games — Primera A.
- Alianza Valledupar are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Internacional de Bogota.
- Llaneros have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Deportivo Cali.
- Last 3 meetings: Alianza Valledupar 2 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Llaneros 0–0 Alianza Valledupar.
More Colombian Primera A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Alianza Valledupar at 40% here. Across 4,942 settled matches (as of 26 October 2026), 2,300 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros
Alianza Valledupar
Primera A
- W1-0Internacional de Bogota25 October 2026
- W1-0away to Deportivo Pasto20 October 2026
- D2-2Águilas Doradas9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Deportivo Cali3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Jaguares27 September 2026
Llaneros
Primera A
- L0-3Deportivo Cali21 October 2026
- W1-0Santa Fe18 October 2026
- L0-1away to Once Caldas10 October 2026
- L1-2America de Cali5 October 2026
- L1-2away to Cucuta26 September 2026
What these results say
- Alianza Valledupar scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Llaneros failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Llaneros conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Alianza Valledupar | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 18 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Alianza Valledupar
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 3% today
Llaneros
Chance to finish in the top eight · 6% today
From our Primera A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros
- 26 April 2026Llaneros 0–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 27 September 2025Alianza Valledupar 3–1 LlanerosPrimera A
- 11 April 2025Llaneros 0–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Alianza Valledupar carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.37 for Llaneros. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.24 goals for Alianza Valledupar and 1.01 for Llaneros. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alianza Valledupar rate 0.57 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Llaneros rate 0.57 and 1.50.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,376 correct results out of 4,950 settled predictions (48%), with 492 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Alianza Valledupar the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Alianza Valledupar against 1.01 for Llaneros. Alianza Valledupar's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.5 for Llaneros.
How the model reaches 40% for Alianza Valledupar to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Alianza Valledupar to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Alianza Valledupar's ratings take away 25 points and Llaneros's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage44%+9
- Alianza Valledupar's ratings19%−25
- Llaneros's ratings40%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Alianza Valledupar at home · Llaneros away
League matches only, Primera A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera A matches this season: Alianza Valledupar 33, Llaneros 33.
Alianza Valledupar score most often in the 31–45 minute window (7 goals); Llaneros have let in 6 there.
Llaneros score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Alianza Valledupar have let in 14 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Alianza Valledupar
- at Millonarios12 Nov · Primera Awin 15%
Llaneros
- vs Chico12 Nov · Primera Awin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.