Fredrikstad
vs
Rosenborg
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Fredrikstad 1–2 Rosenborg
The model makes it 32% Fredrikstad, 27% draw, 41% Rosenborg — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Fredrikstad 1.31, Rosenborg 1.53.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Rosenborg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fredrikstad are 8th on 29 points from 23 games; Rosenborg are 5th on 34 points from 22 games — Eliteserien.
- Fredrikstad have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Viking.
- Rosenborg are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sandefjord.
- Last 6 meetings: Rosenborg 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 July 2026, ended Rosenborg 4–0 Fredrikstad.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rosenborg at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg
Fredrikstad
- L2-3away to Viking17 October 2026
- D1-1Tromso11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Valerenga20 September 2026
- D1-1Sarpsborg 08 FF13 September 2026
- L1-2Bodo/Glimt4 September 2026
Rosenborg
- D1-1Sandefjord10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Kristiansund BK19 September 2026
- W5-3Tromso12 September 2026
- W4-0Ham-Kam5 September 2026
- L2-4away to Bodo/Glimt30 August 2026
What these results say
- Fredrikstad did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fredrikstad conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rosenborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rosenborg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rosenborg had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 29 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 40 | 31 | +9 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rosenborg
Chance to finish in the top four · 57% today
From our Eliteserien season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg
- 27 July 2026Rosenborg 4–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 28 May 2025Fredrikstad 0–2 RosenborgEliteserien
- 5 April 2025Rosenborg 1–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 27 July 2024Fredrikstad 2–2 RosenborgEliteserien
- 2 June 2024Rosenborg 1–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
- 1 May 2024Fredrikstad 1–0 RosenborgNM Cupen
Leading scorers: Fredrikstad and Rosenborg
Fredrikstad
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 28 league goals as a side.
Rosenborg
GoalsAssists
- Amin Chiakha143
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fredrikstad carry a model rating of 6.56 against 6.73 for Rosenborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Fredrikstad and 1.53 for Rosenborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fredrikstad rate 0.62 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rosenborg rate 0.93 and 1.18.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rosenborg the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Fredrikstad against 1.53 for Rosenborg. Fredrikstad's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.18 for Rosenborg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fredrikstad at home · Rosenborg away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Fredrikstad 23, Rosenborg 22.
Rosenborg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Fredrikstad have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Fredrikstad
- vs Brann8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 35%
- at Ham-Kam21 Nov · Eliteserienwin 36%
- vs Aalesund29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 46%
- at KFUM Oslo6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 33%
Rosenborg
- vs Start7 Nov · Eliteserienwin 67%
- at Aalesund22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 46%
- vs Molde28 Nov · Eliteserienwin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.