Aalesund
vs
Sandefjord
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Aalesund 2–1 Sandefjord
The model makes it 37% Aalesund, 27% draw, 36% Sandefjord — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Aalesund 1.51, Sandefjord 1.48.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Aalesund and Sandefjord are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Aalesund are 13th on 24 points from 23 games; Sandefjord are 12th on 24 points from 22 games — Eliteserien.
- Aalesund have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win away to Kristiansund BK.
- Sandefjord have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Rosenborg.
- Last 6 meetings: Sandefjord 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Sandefjord 1–0 Aalesund.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aalesund vs Sandefjord
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aalesund at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aalesund vs Sandefjord
Aalesund
- W4-1away to Kristiansund BK17 October 2026
- L2-4Sarpsborg 08 FF11 October 2026
- W2-1away to Molde19 September 2026
- L1-2away to KFUM Oslo13 September 2026
- W2-0Start4 September 2026
Sandefjord
- D1-1away to Rosenborg10 October 2026
- W3-0Start20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Bodo/Glimt14 September 2026
- D1-1Viking4 September 2026
- D0-0Brann30 August 2026
What these results say
- Aalesund scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aalesund conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Aalesund had three goals or more.
- Sandefjord failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sandefjord scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Aalesund | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 24 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Aalesund
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 41% today
Sandefjord
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
From our Eliteserien season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Aalesund vs Sandefjord
- 3 May 2026Sandefjord 1–0 AalesundEliteserien
- 6 November 2023Aalesund 0–3 SandefjordEliteserien
- 30 April 2023Sandefjord 4–0 AalesundEliteserien
- 13 February 2023Sandefjord 2–1 AalesundFriendlies Clubs
- 23 October 2022Aalesund 1–0 SandefjordEliteserien
- 12 July 2022Sandefjord 2–2 AalesundEliteserien
Leading scorers: Aalesund and Sandefjord
Aalesund
GoalsAssists
- M. Christensen82
Sandefjord
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Aalesund carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.62 for Sandefjord. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Aalesund and 1.48 for Sandefjord. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aalesund rate 0.82 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sandefjord rate 0.62 and 1.03.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sandefjord, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aalesund the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Aalesund against 1.48 for Sandefjord. Aalesund's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.03 for Sandefjord.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aalesund at home · Sandefjord away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Aalesund 22, Sandefjord 22.
Aalesund score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Sandefjord have let in 4 there.
Sandefjord score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Aalesund have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Aalesund
- at Lillestrom8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 29%
- vs Rosenborg22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 31%
- at Fredrikstad29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 29%
- vs Bodo/Glimt5 Dec · Eliteserienwin 19%
Sandefjord
- vs Molde8 Nov · Eliteserienwin 39%
- at Kristiansund BK22 Nov · Eliteserienwin 44%
- vs Tromso29 Nov · Eliteserienwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.