Regular Season - 28 · 29 November 2026, 13:30 UTC

Fredrikstad vs Aalesund Eliteserien prediction

Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad

Our model says: Fredrikstad 2–1 Aalesund

The model makes it 43% Fredrikstad, 25% draw, 32% Aalesund — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Fredrikstad 1.85, Aalesund 1.53.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Fredrikstad's rating is built from 56 Eliteserien matches and Aalesund's from 28, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 691 matches.

Key facts

  • Fredrikstad are 12th on 30 points from 26 games; Aalesund are 15th on 24 points from 26 games — Eliteserien.
  • Fredrikstad have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Brann.
  • Aalesund are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Lillestrom.
  • Last 4 meetings: Fredrikstad 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 7 April 2026, ended Aalesund 2–3 Fredrikstad.

More Eliteserien predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Fredrikstad vs Aalesund

66%
Both teams to score
66%
Over 2.5 goals
34%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Fredrikstad win Draw Aalesund win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–27%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 2–06%
  6. 1–06%
  7. 3–15%

Scores read Fredrikstad first; the other scorelines share the remaining 50%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Fredrikstad at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Fredrikstad vs Aalesund

Fredrikstad

Eliteserien

  • D2-2Brann8 November 2026
  • L0-3Rosenborg31 October 2026
  • L1-5away to Molde25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Viking17 October 2026
  • D1-1Tromso11 October 2026

Aalesund

Eliteserien

  • L2-3away to Lillestrom8 November 2026
  • L3-4Sandefjord31 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF25 October 2026
  • W4-1away to Kristiansund BK17 October 2026
  • L2-4Sarpsborg 08 FF11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Fredrikstad did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Fredrikstad conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Fredrikstad scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aalesund scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Aalesund conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Aalesund had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Fredrikstad2686123146-1530
15Aalesund2659124560-1524

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Fredrikstad vs Aalesund

  • 7 April 2026Aalesund 2–3 FredrikstadEliteserien
  • 22 February 2026Aalesund 2–3 FredrikstadFriendlies Clubs
  • 6 November 2021Fredrikstad 2–2 Aalesund1. Division
  • 12 June 2021Aalesund 2–2 Fredrikstad1. Division

Leading scorers: Fredrikstad and Aalesund

Fredrikstad

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.

Aalesund

GoalsAssists

  • M. Christensen116
  • H. M. Reed83

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Fredrikstad Aalesund
0.59 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.82
1.29 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.73
1.85 Model expected goals (this match) 1.53

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Fredrikstad the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Fredrikstad against 1.53 for Aalesund. Fredrikstad's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.73 for Aalesund.

How the model reaches 43% for Fredrikstad to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Fredrikstad to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Fredrikstad's ratings take away 2 points and Aalesund's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground37%
  2. Home advantage44%+7
  3. Fredrikstad's ratings42%−2
  4. Aalesund's ratings43%+1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

FredrikstadAalesund
26Matches26
8W 6D 12LRecord5W 9D 12L
31 1.2 per gameGoals scored45 1.7 per game
46 1.8 per gameGoals conceded60 2.3 per game
3 of 26Clean sheets1 of 26
6 of 26Failed to score2 of 26
1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 2
42 1.6 per gameYellow cards55 2.1 per game
1Red cards1
3-4-3 15×Usual shape5-3-2 23×

Fredrikstad at home · Aalesund away

13Played13
5W 4D 4LRecord3W 3D 7L
16–17Goals for – against18–26
2 of 13Clean sheets0 of 13

League matches only, Eliteserien, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Eliteserien matches this season: Fredrikstad 26, Aalesund 26.

Fredrikstad scored 365463
Aalesund conceded 879121012
Aalesund scored 69710410
Fredrikstad conceded 867896

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Fredrikstad

  • at KFUM Oslo6 Dec · Eliteserienwin 30%
  • vs Molde13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 31%

Aalesund

  • vs Bodo/Glimt5 Dec · Eliteserienwin 19%
  • at Brann13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 23%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.