Vasteras SK FK
vs
Hammarby FF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Vasteras SK FK 0–1 Hammarby FF
The model makes it 24% Vasteras SK FK, 27% draw, 49% Hammarby FF — fair odds of 4.17, 3.70 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Vasteras SK FK 1.03, Hammarby FF 1.68.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
One-sided: Hammarby FF are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Vasteras SK FK's rating is built from 28 Allsvenskan matches and Hammarby FF's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 708 matches.
Key facts
- Vasteras SK FK are 6th on 45 points from 28 games; Hammarby FF are top on 58 points from 28 games — Allsvenskan.
- Vasteras SK FK are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Orgryte IS.
- Hammarby FF are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to IF Elfsborg.
- Last 6 meetings: Hammarby FF 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 3 October 2026, ended Hammarby FF 1–0 Vasteras SK FK.
More Allsvenskan predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vasteras SK FK vs Hammarby FF
Has the model earned this number?
Hammarby FF at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vasteras SK FK vs Hammarby FF
Vasteras SK FK
Allsvenskan
- D0-0away to Orgryte IS7 November 2026
- W1-0IF Brommapojkarna1 November 2026
- W3-0away to Degerfors IF28 October 2026
- L1-2Halmstad23 October 2026
- W1-0Mjallby AIF18 October 2026
Hammarby FF
Allsvenskan
- W4-1IF Elfsborg6 November 2026
- W2-1away to Malmo FF1 November 2026
- W2-0Sirius29 October 2026
- W2-0away to Mjallby AIF25 October 2026
- W1-0away to Halmstad18 October 2026
What these results say
- Vasteras SK FK scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasteras SK FK kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hammarby FF won every one of these 5 matches.
- Hammarby FF scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 45 |
| 1 | Hammarby FF | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 60 | 23 | +37 | 58 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Vasteras SK FK vs Hammarby FF
- 3 October 2026Hammarby FF 1–0 Vasteras SK FKFriendlies Clubs
- 3 May 2026Hammarby FF 3–0 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
- 10 November 2024Vasteras SK FK 1–0 Hammarby FFAllsvenskan
- 29 April 2024Hammarby FF 2–1 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
- 17 February 2024Hammarby FF 1–2 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen
- 22 September 2022Hammarby FF 3–1 Vasteras SK FKFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Vasteras SK FK and Hammarby FF
Vasteras SK FK
GoalsAssists
- A. Taonsa102
- M. Ladefoged92
Hammarby FF
GoalsAssists
- P. Abraham174
- V. Lind1013
- M. Madjed82
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vasteras SK FK a 0% chance of the title and Hammarby FF 78.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hammarby FF the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK against 1.68 for Hammarby FF. Vasteras SK FK's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/1.03 for Hammarby FF.
How the model reaches 49% for Hammarby FF to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Hammarby FF to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Vasteras SK FK's ratings add 8 points and Hammarby FF's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Vasteras SK FK's ratings40%+8
- Hammarby FF's ratings49%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Vasteras SK FK at home · Hammarby FF away
League matches only, Allsvenskan, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Allsvenskan matches this season: Vasteras SK FK 28, Hammarby FF 28.
Vasteras SK FK score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Hammarby FF have let in 4 there.
Hammarby FF score most often in the 46–60 minute window (14 goals); Vasteras SK FK have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.