Viking
vs
Valerenga
Eliteserien prediction
Our model says: Viking 2–1 Valerenga
The model makes it 66% Viking, 19% draw, 15% Valerenga — fair odds of 1.52, 5.26 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Viking 2.70, Valerenga 1.07.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Viking are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Viking's rating is built from 56 Eliteserien matches and Valerenga's from 55, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 691 matches.
Key facts
- Viking are top on 62 points from 26 games; Valerenga are 8th on 32 points from 26 games — Eliteserien.
- Viking have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to KFUM Oslo.
- Valerenga have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Kristiansund BK.
- Last 6 meetings: Viking 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 April 2026, ended Valerenga 0–1 Viking.
More Eliteserien predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Viking vs Valerenga
Has the model earned this number?
Viking at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Viking vs Valerenga
Viking
Eliteserien
- W5-1KFUM Oslo8 November 2026
- L2-3away to Bodo/Glimt30 October 2026
- W3-1Tromso25 October 2026
- W3-2Fredrikstad17 October 2026
- W2-0away to Brann9 October 2026
Valerenga
Eliteserien
- L0-1away to Kristiansund BK9 November 2026
- W4-0Tromso1 November 2026
- W1-0away to Bodo/Glimt24 October 2026
- W3-1Brann18 October 2026
- L1-2away to KFUM Oslo12 October 2026
What these results say
- Viking scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Viking won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Viking conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valerenga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 26 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 69 | 27 | +42 | 62 |
| 8 | Valerenga | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Viking vs Valerenga
- 6 April 2026Valerenga 0–1 VikingEliteserien
- 30 November 2025Viking 5–1 ValerengaEliteserien
- 30 March 2025Valerenga 3–1 VikingEliteserien
- 22 February 2025Valerenga 3–1 VikingFriendlies Clubs
- 2 September 2023Viking 1–1 ValerengaEliteserien
- 1 July 2023Valerenga 1–2 VikingEliteserien
Leading scorers: Viking and Valerenga
Viking
GoalsAssists
- P. Christiansen187
- S. Kvia-Egeskog93
- H. Heggheim73
Valerenga
GoalsAssists
- L. Haren112
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Viking a 50.1% chance of the title and Valerenga 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Viking the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.70 expected goals for Viking against 1.07 for Valerenga. Viking's attack/defence rating is 1.11/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.34 for Valerenga.
How the model reaches 66% for Viking to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Viking to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Viking's ratings add 11 points and Valerenga's ratings add 11 points, which lands on the published 66%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Viking's ratings55%+11
- Valerenga's ratings66%+11
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Viking at home · Valerenga away
League matches only, Eliteserien, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eliteserien matches this season: Viking 26, Valerenga 26.
Viking score most often in the 0–15 minute window (16 goals); Valerenga have let in 7 there.
Valerenga score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Viking have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Viking
- at Molde4 Dec · Eliteserienwin 46%
- vs Feyenoord8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 44%
- vs Ham-Kam13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 73%
Valerenga
- vs Rosenborg5 Dec · Eliteserienwin 29%
- at Sandefjord13 Dec · Eliteserienwin 32%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.