São Bernardo
vs
CRB
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: São Bernardo 3-1 CRB.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% São Bernardo, 27% draw, 28% CRB — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: São Bernardo 1.96, CRB 1.29.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Model insights: São Bernardo vs CRB
Has the model earned this number?
It puts São Bernardo at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — São Bernardo vs CRB
Line-ups
- 1Alex AlvesG
- 3HélderD
- 35JemersonD
- 90LuizãoD
- 2Rodrigo FerreiraM
- 8FoguinhoM
- 26EduardoM
- 33Mário SérgioM
- 10Fabrício DanielM
- 29PedrinhoM
- 9Felipe GarciaF
- 27EchaporãF
- 42HyoranM
- 31Lucas FernandesM
- 14Lucas LimaM
- 77MarcãoM
- 6ParáD
- 11Pedro VitorF
- 17RomissonM
- 21Hugo SanchesD
- 1Vitor CaetanoG
- 2KevinD
- 22BressanD
- 33LynconD
- 6ReversonD
- 21Pedro CastroM
- 17ThiaguinhoM
- 8CrystopherM
- 10DanielM
- 97Dadá BelmonteM
- 28MikaelF
- 26EstevãoM
- 12MatheusG
- 34RuyD
- 36Lucas LovatD
- 50LuizãoM
- 20Vinicius BarataF
- 27Fábio AlemãoD
- 9João NetoF
- 18GeovaneM
Form going into São Bernardo vs CRB
São Bernardo
- D0-0away to Novorizontino25 September 2026
- W1-0Atletico Goianiense19 September 2026
- W2-0away to America Mineiro14 September 2026
- L1-2Londrina10 September 2026
CRB
- W3-0Cuiaba27 September 2026
- L0-1away to Ponte Preta20 September 2026
- W2-1Sport Recife16 September 2026
- L0-3away to Operario-PR9 September 2026
What these results say
- São Bernardo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- São Bernardo kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for São Bernardo had two goals or fewer.
- CRB conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for CRB had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | São Bernardo | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 45 |
| 7 | CRB | 31 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 46 | 44 | +2 | 48 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: São Bernardo vs CRB
- 2 October 2026São Bernardo 3–1 CRBSerie B
- 7 June 2026CRB 2–3 São BernardoSerie B
Leading scorers: São Bernardo and CRB
São Bernardo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.
CRB
- Mikael15 goals4 assists
- Dadá Belmonte5 goals5 assists
- Crystopher5 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.96 goals for São Bernardo and 1.29 for CRB; the game produced 3 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Thiago Fernandes Rodrigues 51' (CRB), Jemerson 59' (São Bernardo), Lucas Eduardo·Lima da Silva 64' (São Bernardo), Pedro Gabriel Pereira Lopes 81' (São Bernardo).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives São Bernardo the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for São Bernardo against 1.29 for CRB. São Bernardo's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.83 for CRB.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.