Novorizontino
vs
Goias
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Novorizontino 3-0 Goias.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Novorizontino, 26% draw, 19% Goias — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Novorizontino 2.17, Goias 0.82.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Model insights: Novorizontino vs Goias
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Novorizontino at 55% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Novorizontino vs Goias
Line-ups
- 93JordiG
- 2MadsonD
- 26Gabriel BahiaD
- 4PatrickD
- 5SanderD
- 17Matheus BianquiM
- 6Luis OyamaM
- 41ReidineyM
- 10RomuloM
- 30Nicolas CarecaM
- 11RobsonF
- 7Ronald BarcellosF
- 19Diego GaloM
- 66MaykonD
- 15TavinhoF
- 18Léo NaldiM
- 28MarlonM
- 14Eduardo BrockD
- 31CésarG
- 50JuninhoM
- 23TadeuG
- 2Rodrigo SoaresD
- 25Luis FellipeD
- 14Lucas RibeiroD
- 54Djalma SilvaD
- 8JuninhoM
- 5Filipe MachadoM
- 21Jean Carlos Alves FerreiraM
- 10Lucas LimaM
- 18CaduM
- 40KaduF
- 55Guilherme BaldóriaM
- 9Anselmo RamonF
- 66Danilo CunhaD
- 12EzequielG
- 28GegêM
- 77HalerrandrioF
- 29Murilo CamaraD
- 17Pedro JunqueiraF
- 1Thiago RodriguesG
Form going into Novorizontino vs Goias
Novorizontino
- D0-0São Bernardo25 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ceara18 September 2026
- D1-1Cuiaba13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Botafogo SP9 September 2026
Goias
- L0-1Atletico Goianiense26 September 2026
- W2-1Avai20 September 2026
- W3-1away to Botafogo SP14 September 2026
- L0-2away to Vila Nova10 September 2026
What these results say
- Novorizontino failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Novorizontino scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Novorizontino conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Goias conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Novorizontino | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 52 | 27 | +25 | 54 |
| 12 | Goias | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Novorizontino vs Goias
- 2 October 2026Novorizontino 3–0 GoiasSerie B
- 10 June 2026Goias 0–4 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 16 November 2025Goias 1–0 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 23 July 2025Novorizontino 1–0 GoiasSerie B
- 24 November 2024Goias 1–0 NovorizontinoSerie B
- 4 August 2024Novorizontino 2–1 GoiasSerie B
Leading scorers: Novorizontino and Goias
Novorizontino
- Robson14 goals5 assists
- Romulo8 goals8 assists
Goias
- Kadu9 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.17 goals for Novorizontino and 0.82 for Goias; the game produced 3 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Romulo Azevedo Simão 20' (Novorizontino), Robson 61' (Novorizontino), Juninho 90' (Novorizontino).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Novorizontino the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Novorizontino against 0.82 for Goias. Novorizontino's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.69 for Goias.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.