2 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Latvia vs Montenegro UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Skonto, Riga
Referee: Radoslav Gidzhenov, Bulgaria
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Latvia 1-2 Montenegro.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Latvia, 29% draw, 48% Montenegro — fair odds of 4.35, 3.45 and 2.08.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Montenegro at 48%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Latvia0%Draw3%Montenegro97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽Vasilije Adzicassist: Risto Radunović
🔁Roberts Savalnieksout: Raivis Jurkovskis
28'
Antonijs Černomordijs
39'
56'
⚽Vasilije Adzic
60'
🔁Risto Radunovićout: Marko Perović
61'
🔁Marko Jankovićout: viktor djukanovic
61'
🔁Milutin Osmajićout: Milos Brnovic
🔁Antonijs Černomordijsout: Eduards Daskevics
65'
🔁Roberts Uldriķisout: Vladislavs Gutkovskis
65'
68'
🔁Nikola Krstovićout: Aleksa Latkovic
78'
🔁Stevan Jovetićout: Dušan Vuković
🔁Dmitrijs Zelenkovsout: Kristers Cudars
78'
🔁danila patijcuksout: Markuss Strods
78'
⚽Markuss Strodsassist: Kristers Cudars
82'
90+4'
Aleksa Latkovic

Match stats — Latvia vs Montenegro

51%Possession49%
14Shots14
2On target6
5Corners2

Line-ups

Latvia 5-4-1
  • 23R. MatrevicsG
  • 11R. SavaļnieksD
  • 21D. MeļņiksD
  • 5A. ČernomordijsD
  • 4O. VientiessD
  • 3D. CirkinD
  • 6D. PatijčuksM
  • 10L. VapneM
  • 15D. ZelenkovsM
  • 14A. CigaņiksM
  • 20R. UldriķisF
Substitutes
  • 2D. BalodisD
  • 18A. AleksanjanM
  • 7E. DašķevičsF
  • 8E. EmsisM
  • 9V. GutkovskisF
  • 13R. JurkovskisD
  • 12F. OrolsG
  • 1N. PuriņšG
  • 22A. SaveļjevsM
Coach: P. Nicolato
Montenegro 4-3-3
  • 1B. PopovićG
  • 7M. VešovićD
  • 6S. RubežićD
  • 5I. VujačićD
  • 3R. RadunovićD
  • 8M. JankovićM
  • 22S. LončarM
  • 17Vasilije AdžićM
  • 20M. OsmajićF
  • 9N. KrstovićF
  • 10S. JovetićF
Substitutes
  • 14S. MilićD
  • 13I. NikićG
  • 16M. PerovićM
  • 12D. PetkovićG
  • 2M. RoganovićD
  • 15S. SavićD
  • 23D. VukovićF
  • 4M. BrnovićM
  • 18A. LatkovićM
Coach: Mirko Vucinić

Form going into Latvia vs Montenegro

Latvia

UEFA Nations League

  • D0-0Cyprus28 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Armenia25 September 2026

Montenegro

UEFA Nations League

  • W3-2away to Armenia28 September 2026
  • W2-1Cyprus25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Latvia401326-41
1Montenegro431074+310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Latvia vs Montenegro

  • 7 September 2021Montenegro 0–0 LatviaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 24 March 2021Latvia 1–2 MontenegroWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 7 October 2020Montenegro 1–1 LatviaFriendlies

The result against the call

Montenegro won 2–1 at Latvia. The model had made a win for Montenegro its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Vasilije Adzic 3' for Montenegro, Vasilije Adzic 56' for Montenegro, Markuss Strods 82' for Latvia.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.