Ukraine vs Northern Ireland UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Ukraine 0-3 Northern Ireland.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Ukraine, 31% draw, 27% Northern Ireland — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Ukraine at 42%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ukraine vs Northern Ireland
Line-ups
- 23D. RiznykG
- 5V. BondarD
- 13I. ZabarnyiD
- 3E. SarapiyD
- 22M. MatvienkoD
- 6V. BrazhkoM
- 7A. YarmolenkoM
- 18O. OcheretkoM
- 15V. TsygankovM
- 8H. SudakovM
- 9R. YaremchukF
- 2I. KrupskyiD
- 21I. KrasnopirF
- 4T. MykhavkoD
- 17O. NazarenkoM
- 19E. NazarynaM
- 11M. PonomarenkoF
- 10M. ShaparenkoM
- 14D. SikanF
- 12A. TrubinG
- 1P. CharlesG
- 20B. SpencerD
- 4Tom AtchesonD
- 15Ruairi McConvilleD
- 22C. BrownD
- 2T. DevlinD
- 7K. MorrisonM
- 5T. HumeM
- 19S. CharlesM
- 14I. PriceM
- 10J. DonleyF
- 6J. ThompsonM
- 11P. SmythF
- 23B. Peacock-FarrellG
- 8C. O’NeillF
- 17P. McNairD
- 21J. MagennisF
- 16Patrick KellyM
- 12C. HazardG
- 18B. GrahamF
Form going into Ukraine vs Northern Ireland
Ukraine
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0away to Georgia28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Hungary25 September 2026
Northern Ireland
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0Hungary28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Georgia25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ukraine | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ukraine vs Northern Ireland
- 3 June 2021Ukraine 1–0 Northern IrelandFriendlies
- 16 June 2016Ukraine 0–2 Northern IrelandEuro Championship
The result against the call
Northern Ireland won 3–0 at Ukraine. The model had leaned towards a win for Ukraine at 42% and given a win for Northern Ireland 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Ciaron Brown 9' for Northern Ireland, Isaac Price 22' for Northern Ireland, Ciaron Brown 61' for Northern Ireland.