2 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Kazakhstan vs Moldova UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Astana Arena, Astana
Referee: Marian Barbu, Romania
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Kazakhstan 1-2 Moldova.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Kazakhstan, 29% draw, 24% Moldova — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kazakhstan at 47%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kazakhstan0%Draw5%Moldova95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45+1'
⚽Nicky Clescenco
🔁Ramazan Orazovout: Erkin Tapalov
45'
🔁Elkhan Astanovout: Azamat Tuyakbaev
45'
45'
🔁Vladimir Frateaout: Nikita Motpan
50'
⚽Petru popescuassist: Sergiu Perciun
59'
🔁Nicky Clescencoout: Victor Stina
🔁Ramazan·Karimovout: Artur Shushenachev
59'
⚽Nuraly Alipassist: Bauyrzhan Islamkhan
64'
🔁Aleksandr Mrynskiyout: Nauryzbek Zhagorov
66'
🔁Temirlan Erlanovout: Sergey Malyy
74'
75'
🔁Oleg Reabciukout: Mihail Stefan
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
80'
86'
🔁Ioan-Calin Revencoout: Ovidiu David
86'
🔁Vadim Rațăout: Daniel Dumbravanu
Yan Vorogovskiy
89'

Match stats — Kazakhstan vs Moldova

65%Possession35%
19Shots16
4On target8
11Corners4

Line-ups

Kazakhstan 4-2-3-1
  • 16A. ZarutskiyG
  • 13A. MrynskiyD
  • 23T. ErlanovD
  • 3N. AlipD
  • 11Y. VorogovskiyD
  • 20R. OrazovM
  • 18D. KaramanM
  • 21E. AstanovM
  • 9B. IslamkhanM
  • 7G. KenzhebekM
  • 19R. KarimovF
Substitutes
  • 12T. AnarbekovG
  • 8Z. AmirD
  • 17S. BasmanovF
  • 5D. KasabulatD
  • 6A. KassymD
  • 2S. MaliyD
  • 10A. ShushenachevF
  • 22E. TapalovD
  • 15A. TuyakbayevM
Coach: J. van 't Schip
Moldova 5-3-2
  • 12D. CeleadnicG
  • 8I. RevencoD
  • 4V. BabogloD
  • 18I. IovuD
  • 6M. GherasimencovD
  • 2O. ReabciukD
  • 14Vladimir FrateaM
  • 22V. RaţăM
  • 9S. PerciunM
  • 15Petru PopescuF
  • 20N. CleșcencoF
Substitutes
  • 13S. CojocariM
  • 5C. CucoșD
  • 17O. DavidM
  • 19D. DumbrăvanuD
  • 16D. ForovF
  • 21D. MandrîcencoM
  • 7N. MoțpanM
  • 3M. ȘtefanD
  • 11V. StînăM
Coach: L. Popescu

Form going into Kazakhstan vs Moldova

Kazakhstan

UEFA Nations League

  • L1-2away to Slovakia29 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Faroe Islands26 September 2026

Moldova

UEFA Nations League

  • D1-1Faroe Islands29 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Slovakia26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Kazakhstan402257-22
3Moldova411238-54

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kazakhstan vs Moldova

  • 29 March 2022Kazakhstan 0–1 MoldovaUEFA Nations League
  • 24 March 2022Moldova 1–2 KazakhstanUEFA Nations League
  • 21 February 2019Kazakhstan 1–0 MoldovaFriendlies

The result against the call

Moldova won 2–1 at Kazakhstan. The model had leaned towards a win for Kazakhstan at 47% and given a win for Moldova 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nicky Clescenco 45+1' for Moldova, Petru popescu 50' for Moldova, Nuraly Alip 64' for Kazakhstan.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.