Union St. Gilloise
vs
Genk
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Union St. Gilloise 1–0 Genk
The model makes it 59% Union St. Gilloise, 25% draw, 16% Genk — fair odds of 1.69, 4.00 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Union St. Gilloise 1.91, Genk 0.77.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Union St. Gilloise are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Union St. Gilloise's rating is built from 48 Jupiler Pro League matches and Genk's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 712 matches.
Key facts
- Union St. Gilloise are 4th on 20 points from 8 games; Genk are 7th on 12 points from 8 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-1 draw at home to OH Leuven.
- Genk have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Kortrijk.
- Last 6 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Union St. Gilloise 2–1 Genk.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Union St. Gilloise vs Genk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union St. Gilloise at 59% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Genk
Union St. Gilloise
Jupiler Pro League
- D1-1OH Leuven11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Antwerp20 September 2026
- W5-0Lommel United12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Charleroi5 September 2026
- W3-0away to St. Truiden2 September 2026
Genk
Jupiler Pro League
- W3-0Kortrijk10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Club Brugge KV20 September 2026
- D1-1Gent13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Anderlecht6 September 2026
- W4-0SK Beveren28 August 2026
What these results say
- Union St. Gilloise went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 20 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Union St. Gilloise vs Genk
- 7 March 2026Union St. Gilloise 2–1 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 21 September 2025Genk 1–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 3 May 2025Union St. Gilloise 1–0 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 20 April 2025Genk 1–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 15 March 2025Genk 2–1 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 10 November 2024Union St. Gilloise 4–0 GenkJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Union St. Gilloise and Genk
Union St. Gilloise
GoalsAssists
- R. Florucz40
- R. Mofokeng31
Genk
GoalsAssists
- R. Durosinmi60
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Union St. Gilloise carry a model rating of 7.18 against 6.84 for Genk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.77 for Genk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Union St. Gilloise rate 1.20 in attack and 0.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Genk rate 0.95 and 0.98.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Union St. Gilloise a 30.1% chance of the title and Genk 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise against 0.77 for Genk. Union St. Gilloise's attack/defence rating is 1.2/0.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/0.98 for Genk.
How the model reaches 59% for Union St. Gilloise to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Union St. Gilloise to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Union St. Gilloise's ratings add 16 points and Genk's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 59%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Union St. Gilloise's ratings59%+16
- Genk's ratings59%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Union St. Gilloise at home · Genk away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Union St. GilloiseGenk
Union St. Gilloise are 4th after 8 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Genk are 7th after 8 (between 4th and 14th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Union St. Gilloise 8, Genk 8.
Union St. Gilloise score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Genk have let in 5 there.
Genk score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Union St. Gilloise have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Union St. Gilloise
- at Kortrijk22 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 71%
- vs Lech Poznan26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 55%
Genk
- vs RAAL La Louvière21 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 57%
- at St. Truiden29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 32%
- vs OH Leuven11 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 54%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.