Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 2 · 5 August 2026, 22:00 UTC

Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes La Plata

Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires

The model makes it 46% Boca Juniors, 27% draw, 27% Estudiantes La Plata — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Boca Juniors 1.50, Estudiantes La Plata 1.10.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

52%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 11%2-1 9%

Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes La Plata

  • 29 January 2026Estudiantes La Plata 2–1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 2 November 2025Estudiantes La Plata 1–2 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 19 April 2025Boca Juniors 2–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 27 August 2024Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 30 April 2024Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 Boca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 13 April 2024Estudiantes La Plata 1–0 Boca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Boca Juniors the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.5 expected goals for Boca Juniors against 1.1 for Estudiantes La Plata. Boca Juniors's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/0.87 for Estudiantes La Plata.