Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes La Plata Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Boca Juniors 1-0 Estudiantes La Plata.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Boca Juniors, 27% draw, 27% Estudiantes La Plata — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Boca Juniors at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes La Plata
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Álvaro MonteroG
- 17Leandro LozanoD
- 2Lautaro Di LolloD
- 26Marco PellegrinoD
- 3Lautaro BlancoD
- 5Leandro ParedesM
- 19Leonel FloresM
- 25Santiago AscacíbarM
- 18Milton DelgadoM
- 10Tomás ArandaM
- 16Miguel MerentielF
- 22Sebastián VillaF
- 20Alan VelascoM
- 23Camilo Rey DomenechM
- 21Kevin ZenónM
- 12Leandro BreyG
- 32Ayrton CostaD
- 27Malcom BraidaM
- 24Dylan GorositoD
- 4Nicolás FigalD
- 1Fabricio IacovichG
- 20Eric MezaD
- 4Santiago NúñezD
- 24Tomás PalaciosD
- 13Gastón BenedettiD
- 21Ezequiel PioviM
- 22Alexis CastroM
- 29Fabricio PérezM
- 10Tiago PalaciosM
- 17Joaquín Tobio BurgosM
- 9Guido CarrilloF
- 28Brian AguirreF
- 18Edwuin CetréF
- 8Gabriel NevesM
- 11Facundo FaríasM
- 27Lucas AlarioF
- 12Rodrigo BorzoneG
- 26Ramiro Funes MoriD
- 36Joaquin PereyraD
- 40Eros MancusoD
Form going into Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes La Plata
Boca Juniors
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Newell's Old Boys2 August 2026
- L0-3away to Deportivo Riestra26 July 2026
Estudiantes La Plata
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Defensa Y Justicia1 August 2026
- L0-2Independiente26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 24 | 14 | +10 | 33 |
| 12 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes La Plata
- 29 January 2026Estudiantes La Plata 2–1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 2 November 2025Estudiantes La Plata 1–2 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 April 2025Boca Juniors 2–0 Estudiantes La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
- 27 August 2024Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
- 30 April 2024Estudiantes La Plata 1–1 Boca JuniorsCopa de la Liga Profesional
Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and Estudiantes La Plata
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel92
Estudiantes La Plata
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Boca Juniors beat Estudiantes La Plata 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Boca Juniors at 46%. The goal: Santiago Ascacíbar 45+1' for Boca Juniors. On expected goals it finished 0.77–0.37.