UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round · 5 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Aarhus vs Sabah FA

New Vejlby Stadium, Aarhus

The model makes it 57% Aarhus, 23% draw, 20% Sabah FA — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Aarhus 1.95, Sabah FA 1.08.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: High.

Model insights

57%

Both teams to score

58%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines1-1 11%2-1 10%2-0 9%

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Aarhus the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Aarhus against 1.08 for Sabah FA. Aarhus's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.45 for Sabah FA.