5 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Aarhus vs Sabah FA UEFA Champions League prediction & result

New Vejlby Stadium, Aarhus
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Aarhus 2-1 Sabah FA.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Aarhus, 23% draw, 20% Sabah FA — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Aarhus at 57% here. Across 2454 settled matches, 631 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aarhus97%Draw3%Sabah FA0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁F. Tingagerout: J. Andersen
29'
⚽J. Bogere
31'
37'
Veljko Simić
39'
Joy Lance Mickels
🔁J. Jonssonout: R. Carstensen
46'
⚽J. Bogereassist: M. Knudsen
63'
65'
🔁K. Parrisout: O. Mbina
66'
⚽V. Simicassist: U. Rakhmonaliyev
🔁F. Emmeryout: G. Links
71'
Gift Links
73'
Magnus Knudsen
74'
79'
🔁A. Isayevout: X. Severina
🔁C. Roslerout: C. Storch
81'
🔁M. Andersonout: J. Serra
81'
90+1'
•Christian Storch
90+3'
🔁J. Mickelsout: Y. Lachaab
90+3'
🔁V. Simicout: A. Khaybulaev

Match stats — Aarhus vs Sabah FA

44%Possession56%
10Shots15
3On target4
6Corners5

Line-ups

Aarhus 3-4-3
  • 21M. HedenstadG
  • 25C. RoslerD
  • 5F. TingagerD
  • 19E. KahlD
  • 23M. AndersonM
  • 4M. KnudsenM
  • 16J. JonssonM
  • 39F. EmmeryM
  • 31T. BechF
  • 28J. BogereF
  • 10K. Arnstad
Substitutes
  • 1J. HansenG
  • 11G. LinksM
  • 29R. CarstensenD
  • 26J. AndersenD
  • 45C. StorchD
  • 13J. SerraF
  • 7M. SolbakkenM
  • 8S. JorgensenM
  • 27S. TchamcheF
Coach: Jakob Poulsen
Sabah FA 4-2-3-1
  • 92S. PokatilovG
  • 80A. ZedadkaD
  • 3S. SolvetD
  • 5R. DashdamirovD
  • 27T. PuchaczD
  • 7U. RakhmonaliyevM
  • 13I. LepinjicaM
  • 11K. ParrisM
  • 10A. IsayevM
  • 21V. SimicM
  • 20J. MickelsF
Substitutes
  • 94R. MirzammadovG
  • 1A. RamazanovG
  • 88R. FernandesM
  • 16R. RustamliM
  • 33E. A. Santos JuniorD
  • 23Y. LachaabF
  • 8C. NwachukwuF
  • 17T. Mutallimov
  • 99O. MbinaF
Coach: Valdas Dambrauskas

Form going into Aarhus vs Sabah FA

Aarhus

  • D2-2away to Lyngby1 August 2026
  • W4-1away to Lech Poznan29 July 2026
  • D1-1Brondby25 July 2026
  • L1-4Lech Poznan21 July 2026

Sabah FA

  • W2-0away to KuPS28 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Aarhus and Sabah FA in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
11AarhusSuperliga8044915-64
34Sabah FAUEFA Champions League100104-40

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Superliga · UEFA Champions League

Head-to-head: Aarhus vs Sabah FA

  • 5 August 2026Aarhus 1–0 Sabah FAUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Aarhus and Sabah FA

Aarhus

  • J. Serra3 goals

Sabah FA

  • J. Mickels3 goals1 assists
  • V. Simić3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.