UEFA Europa League · 3rd Qualifying Round · 5 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Ferencvarosi TC vs Gornik Zabrze

Groupama Arena, Budapest

The model makes it 46% Ferencvarosi TC, 28% draw, 26% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Ferencvarosi TC 1.38, Gornik Zabrze 0.96.

Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

47%
Both teams to score
41%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 13%0-0 10%
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ferencvarosi TC the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ferencvarosi TC against 0.96 for Gornik Zabrze. Ferencvarosi TC's attack/defence rating is 0.65/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.12 for Gornik Zabrze.