VfL Wolfsburg
vs
VfL Osnabrück
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 VfL Osnabrück
The model makes it 59% VfL Wolfsburg, 22% draw, 19% VfL Osnabrück — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: VfL Wolfsburg 2.24, VfL Osnabrück 1.06.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to VfL Wolfsburg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- VfL Wolfsburg are 3rd on 15 points from 8 games; VfL Osnabrück are 11th on 8 points from 7 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- VfL Wolfsburg are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to 1. FC Heidenheim.
- VfL Osnabrück are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Dynamo Dresden.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: VfL Wolfsburg vs VfL Osnabrück
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfL Wolfsburg at 59% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into VfL Wolfsburg vs VfL Osnabrück
VfL Wolfsburg
- W3-11. FC Heidenheim17 October 2026
- D4-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg10 October 2026
- W5-1SV Darmstadt 9818 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC St. Pauli12 September 2026
- D4-4Energie Cottbus5 September 2026
VfL Osnabrück
- D1-1Dynamo Dresden10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Holstein Kiel19 September 2026
- L1-3Hertha BSC13 September 2026
- W3-1Eintracht Braunschweig6 September 2026
- W1-0away to VfL Bochum28 August 2026
What these results say
- VfL Wolfsburg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for VfL Wolfsburg had three goals or more.
- VfL Osnabrück scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- VfL Osnabrück conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for VfL Osnabrück.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | VfL Wolfsburg | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 13 | +9 | 15 |
| 11 | VfL Osnabrück | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
VfL Wolfsburg
Chance to finish in the top four · 61% today
VfL Osnabrück
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
From our 2. Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Leading scorers: VfL Wolfsburg and VfL Osnabrück
VfL Wolfsburg
GoalsAssists
- R. Glatzel41
- A. Bernhardsson33
VfL Osnabrück
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
VfL Wolfsburg carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.41 for VfL Osnabrück. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.24 goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.06 for VfL Osnabrück. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfL Wolfsburg rate 0.81 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfL Osnabrück rate 0.66 and 1.60.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VfL Wolfsburg a 15.7% chance of the title and VfL Osnabrück 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfL Wolfsburg the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for VfL Wolfsburg against 1.06 for VfL Osnabrück. VfL Wolfsburg's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.6 for VfL Osnabrück.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
VfL Wolfsburg at home · VfL Osnabrück away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: VfL Wolfsburg 8, VfL Osnabrück 7.
VfL Osnabrück score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); VfL Wolfsburg have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
VfL Wolfsburg
- at Hertha BSC7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
- vs Holstein Kiel21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 55%
- at Eintracht Braunschweig29 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 47%
- vs 1. FC Magdeburg6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 49%
VfL Osnabrück
- vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 32%
- at Karlsruher SC22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 36%
- vs Hannover 9628 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.