Arminia Bielefeld
vs
VfL Osnabrück
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Arminia Bielefeld 2–1 VfL Osnabrück
The model makes it 43% Arminia Bielefeld, 26% draw, 31% VfL Osnabrück — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Arminia Bielefeld 1.98, VfL Osnabrück 1.49.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Arminia Bielefeld are 13th on 5 points from 6 games; VfL Osnabrück are 11th on 7 points from 6 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Arminia Bielefeld are without a win in 4, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to 1. FC Heidenheim.
- VfL Osnabrück have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Holstein Kiel.
- Last 6 meetings: Arminia Bielefeld 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2025, ended VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Arminia Bielefeld.
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arminia Bielefeld at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück
Arminia Bielefeld
- D2-21. FC Heidenheim20 September 2026
- L1-2away to SV Darmstadt 9811 September 2026
- D2-2FC St. Pauli4 September 2026
- L1-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg29 August 2026
- W3-0Energie Cottbus16 August 2026
VfL Osnabrück
- D1-1away to Holstein Kiel19 September 2026
- L1-3Hertha BSC13 September 2026
- W3-1Eintracht Braunschweig6 September 2026
- W1-0away to VfL Bochum28 August 2026
- L0-31. FC Magdeburg15 August 2026
What these results say
- Arminia Bielefeld scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Arminia Bielefeld had three goals or more.
- Arminia Bielefeld failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfL Osnabrück scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- VfL Osnabrück conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 5 |
| 11 | VfL Osnabrück | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück
- 15 March 2025VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Arminia Bielefeld3. Liga
- 20 October 2024Arminia Bielefeld 3–1 VfL Osnabrück3. Liga
- 15 August 2020Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 VfL OsnabruckFriendlies Clubs
- 17 May 2020Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 VfL Osnabruck2. Bundesliga
- 7 October 2019VfL Osnabruck 0–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 18 February 2015VfL Osnabruck 0–4 Arminia Bielefeld3. Liga
Leading scorers: Arminia Bielefeld and VfL Osnabrück
Arminia Bielefeld
- J. Grodowski5 goals
VfL Osnabrück
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Arminia Bielefeld carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.42 for VfL Osnabrück. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.49 for VfL Osnabrück. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arminia Bielefeld rate 0.72 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfL Osnabrück rate 0.68 and 1.60.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour VfL Osnabrück, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arminia Bielefeld a 0.5% chance of the title and VfL Osnabrück 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arminia Bielefeld the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.49 for VfL Osnabrück. Arminia Bielefeld's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.6 for VfL Osnabrück.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arminia Bielefeld at home · VfL Osnabrück away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Arminia Bielefeld 6, VfL Osnabrück 6.
Arminia Bielefeld score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); VfL Osnabrück have let in 3 there.
VfL Osnabrück score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Arminia Bielefeld have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Arminia Bielefeld
- at Hertha BSC24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 26%
- vs Eintracht Braunschweig31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 43%
- at Holstein Kiel7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
- vs 1. FC Magdeburg21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
VfL Osnabrück
- vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
- at VfL Wolfsburg31 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 23%
- vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 35%
- at Karlsruher SC21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.