Dynamo Dresden
vs
1. FC Magdeburg
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Dynamo Dresden 2–1 1. FC Magdeburg
The model makes it 37% Dynamo Dresden, 27% draw, 36% 1. FC Magdeburg — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dynamo Dresden 1.72, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.72.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Dynamo Dresden and 1. FC Magdeburg are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Dynamo Dresden are 17th on 4 points from 6 games; 1. FC Magdeburg are 6th on 10 points from 6 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Dynamo Dresden are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Hertha BSC.
- 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
- Last 6 meetings: Dynamo Dresden 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended 1. FC Magdeburg 1–2 Dynamo Dresden.
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Magdeburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dynamo Dresden at 37% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Magdeburg
Dynamo Dresden
- L1-2Hertha BSC19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Eintracht Braunschweig12 September 2026
- L1-2VfL Bochum5 September 2026
- L3-5away to 1. FC Heidenheim29 August 2026
- W1-0SV Darmstadt 9816 August 2026
1. FC Magdeburg
- D1-1away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth18 September 2026
- W3-01. FC Kaiserslautern12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Hertha BSC6 September 2026
- W2-0Holstein Kiel30 August 2026
- W3-0away to VfL Osnabrück15 August 2026
What these results say
- Dynamo Dresden scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Magdeburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Dynamo Dresden | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
| 6 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Magdeburg
- 24 January 20261. FC Magdeburg 1–2 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 9 August 2025Dynamo Dresden 1–2 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
- 6 January 2024Dynamo Dresden 2–2 1. FC MagdeburgFriendlies Clubs
- 6 February 2021FC Magdeburg 0–1 Dynamo Dresden3. Liga
- 10 October 2020Dynamo Dresden 1–0 FC Magdeburg3. Liga
- 16 March 2019Dynamo Dresden 1–1 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Dynamo Dresden and 1. FC Magdeburg
Dynamo Dresden
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
1. FC Magdeburg
- E. Iyoha4 goals
- A. Nollenberger3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dynamo Dresden carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.54 for 1. FC Magdeburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.72 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dynamo Dresden rate 0.70 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Magdeburg rate 0.77 and 1.43.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour 1. FC Magdeburg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dynamo Dresden a 0% chance of the title and 1. FC Magdeburg 2.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dynamo Dresden the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden against 1.72 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Dynamo Dresden's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.43 for 1. FC Magdeburg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Dynamo Dresden at home · 1. FC Magdeburg away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Dynamo Dresden 6, 1. FC Magdeburg 6.
Dynamo Dresden score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); 1. FC Magdeburg have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Dynamo Dresden
- at Holstein Kiel24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 33%
- at Hannover 9631 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 29%
- vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 41%
- at 1. FC Kaiserslautern21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 29%
1. FC Magdeburg
- vs Karlsruher SC24 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 49%
- at SV Darmstadt 9831 Oct · 2. Bundesligawin 39%
- vs FC St. Pauli7 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 36%
- at Arminia Bielefeld21 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.