Karlsruher SC
vs
1. FC Heidenheim
2. Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Karlsruher SC 1–2 1. FC Heidenheim
The model makes it 23% Karlsruher SC, 24% draw, 53% 1. FC Heidenheim — fair odds of 4.35, 4.17 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Karlsruher SC 1.22, 1. FC Heidenheim 2.08.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: 1. FC Heidenheim are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Karlsruher SC are bottom on 5 points from 7 games; 1. FC Heidenheim are 5th on 14 points from 8 games — 2. Bundesliga.
- Karlsruher SC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to FC St. Pauli.
- 1. FC Heidenheim are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to VfL Wolfsburg.
- Last 6 meetings: Karlsruher SC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 21 March 2024, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 0–1 Karlsruher SC.
More 2. Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Heidenheim
Has the model earned this number?
It puts 1. FC Heidenheim at 53% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Heidenheim
Karlsruher SC
- L0-2away to FC St. Pauli11 October 2026
- L0-11. FC Nürnberg19 September 2026
- L0-3Energie Cottbus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hannover 964 September 2026
- L2-5VfL Wolfsburg29 August 2026
1. FC Heidenheim
- L1-3away to VfL Wolfsburg17 October 2026
- D0-01. FC Kaiserslautern9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Arminia Bielefeld20 September 2026
- W1-0Holstein Kiel13 September 2026
- W1-0away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth6 September 2026
What these results say
- Karlsruher SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Karlsruher SC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1. FC Heidenheim scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Karlsruher SC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 5 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Heidenheim
- 21 March 20241. FC Heidenheim 0–1 Karlsruher SCFriendlies Clubs
- 17 March 2023FC Heidenheim 5–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 10 September 2022Karlsruher SC 0–0 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 15 May 2022FC Heidenheim 2–0 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
- 12 December 2021Karlsruher SC 3–2 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 23 May 2021FC Heidenheim 1–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Karlsruher SC and 1. FC Heidenheim
Karlsruher SC
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
1. FC Heidenheim
GoalsAssists
- J. Schöppner30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Karlsruher SC carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.69 for 1. FC Heidenheim. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Karlsruher SC and 2.08 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Karlsruher SC rate 0.61 in attack and 1.73 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1. FC Heidenheim rate 0.85 and 1.16.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Karlsruher SC a 0% chance of the title and 1. FC Heidenheim 11.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Heidenheim the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Karlsruher SC against 2.08 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Karlsruher SC's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.73 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.16 for 1. FC Heidenheim.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Karlsruher SC at home · 1. FC Heidenheim away
League matches only, 2. Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 2. Bundesliga matches this season: Karlsruher SC 7, 1. FC Heidenheim 8.
1. FC Heidenheim score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Karlsruher SC have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Karlsruher SC
- at VfL Bochum8 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 27%
- vs VfL Osnabrück22 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 38%
- at Hertha BSC28 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 17%
1. FC Heidenheim
- vs Hannover 968 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 54%
- at SV Darmstadt 9820 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 47%
- vs 1. FC Nürnberg27 Nov · 2. Bundesligawin 46%
- at FC St. Pauli6 Dec · 2. Bundesligawin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.