FC Seoul
vs
Daejeon Citizen
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: FC Seoul 2–1 Daejeon Citizen
The model makes it 42% FC Seoul, 26% draw, 32% Daejeon Citizen — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Seoul 1.68, Daejeon Citizen 1.41.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. FC Seoul's rating is built from 73 K League 1 matches and Daejeon Citizen's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 674 matches.
Key facts
- FC Seoul are top on 67 points from 35 games; Daejeon Citizen are 3rd on 53 points from 35 games — K League 1, Championship Group.
- FC Seoul are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Ulsan Hyundai FC.
- Daejeon Citizen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Incheon United.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Seoul 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 August 2026, ended FC Seoul 4–2 Daejeon Citizen.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Seoul vs Daejeon Citizen
Has the model earned this number?
FC Seoul at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Seoul vs Daejeon Citizen
FC Seoul
K League 1
- L1-2Ulsan Hyundai FC8 November 2026
- L0-1Incheon United1 November 2026
- D1-1Gangwon FC24 October 2026
- D2-2Gimcheon Sangmu FC18 October 2026
- W2-1Jeju United FC10 October 2026
Daejeon Citizen
K League 1
- W2-0Incheon United8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Jeonbuk Motors31 October 2026
- W2-1away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC24 October 2026
- W3-2Gwangju FC18 October 2026
- W2-1Jeonbuk Motors9 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Seoul conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Seoul failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Seoul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Daejeon Citizen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Daejeon Citizen won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Daejeon Citizen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 35 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 62 | 32 | +30 | 67 |
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 55 | 41 | +14 | 53 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Seoul vs Daejeon Citizen
- 15 August 2026FC Seoul 4–2 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 16 May 2026Daejeon Citizen 1–2 FC SeoulK League 1
- 18 April 2026FC Seoul 0–1 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 1 November 2025Daejeon Citizen 3–1 FC SeoulK League 1
- 27 July 2025Daejeon Citizen 0–1 FC SeoulK League 1
- 10 May 2025Daejeon Citizen 0–0 FC SeoulK League 1
Leading scorers: FC Seoul and Daejeon Citizen
FC Seoul
GoalsAssists
- P. Klimala80
Daejeon Citizen
GoalsAssists
- Diogo de Oliveira62
- Jeong Jae-Hee41
- M. Ishida41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Seoul a 100% chance of the title and Daejeon Citizen 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Seoul the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for FC Seoul against 1.41 for Daejeon Citizen. FC Seoul's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/1.39 for Daejeon Citizen.
How the model reaches 42% for FC Seoul to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Seoul to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, FC Seoul's ratings add 1 point and Daejeon Citizen's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage39%+3
- Both sides at this match's level40%+1
- FC Seoul's ratings41%+1
- Daejeon Citizen's ratings42%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
FC Seoul at home · Daejeon Citizen away
League matches only, K League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: FC Seoul 35, Daejeon Citizen 35.
FC Seoul score most often in the 46–60 minute window (20 goals); Daejeon Citizen have let in 7 there.
Daejeon Citizen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (18 goals); FC Seoul have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
FC Seoul
- at Gangwon FC6 Dec · K League 1win 38%
Daejeon Citizen
- at Johor Darul Takzim FC1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 34%
- vs Ulsan Hyundai FC6 Dec · K League 1win 47%
- vs Kashima9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 42%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.