Championship Group - 36 · 21 November 2026, 07:30 UTC

Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC K League 1 prediction

Sungui Arena Park, Incheon

Our model says: Incheon United 1–0 Ulsan Hyundai FC

The model makes it 42% Incheon United, 28% draw, 30% Ulsan Hyundai FC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Incheon United 1.50, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.20.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Incheon United's rating is built from 35 K League 1 matches and Ulsan Hyundai FC's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 674 matches.

Key facts

  • Incheon United are bottom on 49 points from 35 games; Ulsan Hyundai FC are 2nd on 57 points from 35 games — K League 1, Championship Group.
  • Incheon United have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Daejeon Citizen.
  • Ulsan Hyundai FC are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to FC Seoul.
  • Last 6 meetings: Ulsan Hyundai FC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 September 2026, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–1 Incheon United.

More K League 1 predictions

All K League 1 predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC

55%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Incheon United win Draw Ulsan Hyundai FC win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 0–17%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Incheon United first; the other scorelines share the remaining 38%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Incheon United at 42%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC

Incheon United

K League 1

  • L0-2away to Daejeon Citizen8 November 2026
  • W1-0away to FC Seoul1 November 2026
  • W3-1Jeju United FC24 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Gangwon FC18 October 2026
  • W3-0Pohang Steelers9 October 2026

Ulsan Hyundai FC

K League 1

  • W2-1away to FC Seoul8 November 2026
  • W2-1Gangwon FC1 November 2026
  • D2-2Pohang Steelers24 October 2026
  • W2-1Bucheon FC 199517 October 2026
  • L3-4away to Gwangju FC11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Incheon United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Ulsan Hyundai FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Ulsan Hyundai FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for Ulsan Hyundai FC had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

K League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Incheon United351310124437+749
2Ulsan Hyundai FC35176125649+757

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC

  • 12 September 2026Ulsan Hyundai FC 2–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
  • 21 July 2026Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–2 Incheon UnitedK League 1
  • 11 April 2026Incheon United 1–2 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
  • 14 May 2025Ulsan Hyundai FC 3–0 Incheon UnitedFA Cup
  • 22 September 2024Incheon United 0–0 Ulsan Hyundai FCK League 1
  • 17 July 2024Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–0 Incheon UnitedFA Cup

Leading scorers: Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC

Incheon United

GoalsAssists

  • S. Mugoša111
  • M. Ferrier51

Ulsan Hyundai FC

GoalsAssists

  • Yago Cariello131
  • Lee Dong-Gyeong1010

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ulsan Hyundai FC (second, with Incheon United sixth), while our numbers lean to Incheon United. Incheon United rate 0.66 in attack and 1.17 in defence, Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.81 and 1.60 (lower is better in defence), so Incheon United have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 8-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

How the call on Incheon United v Ulsan Hyundai FC has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Incheon United's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Incheon United win42%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Ulsan Hyundai FC win30%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Incheon United Ulsan Hyundai FC
0.66 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.81
1.17 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.6
1.50 Model expected goals (this match) 1.20

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Incheon United the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Incheon United against 1.20 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Incheon United's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.6 for Ulsan Hyundai FC.

Incheon United carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.52 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 42% for Incheon United to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Incheon United to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, Incheon United's ratings change nothing and Ulsan Hyundai FC's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 42%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage39%+3
  3. Incheon United's ratings39%±0
  4. Ulsan Hyundai FC's ratings42%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Incheon UnitedUlsan Hyundai FC
35Matches35
13W 10D 12LRecord17W 6D 12L
44 1.3 per gameGoals scored56 1.6 per game
37 1.1 per gameGoals conceded49 1.4 per game
10 of 35Clean sheets6 of 35
8 of 35Failed to score6 of 35
8 of 10Penalties scored5 of 8
67 1.9 per gameYellow cards50 1.4 per game
3Red cards2
4-4-2 29×Usual shape4-2-3-1 11×

Incheon United at home · Ulsan Hyundai FC away

17Played17
7W 4D 6LRecord7W 4D 6L
23–17Goals for – against24–22
4 of 17Clean sheets3 of 17

League matches only, K League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All K League 1 matches this season: Incheon United 35, Ulsan Hyundai FC 35.

Incheon United scored 2516498
Ulsan Hyundai FC conceded 8875810

Incheon United score most often in the 31–45 minute window (16 goals); Ulsan Hyundai FC have let in 7 there.

Ulsan Hyundai FC scored 471191414
Incheon United conceded 4287510

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Incheon United

  • vs Gangwon FC29 Nov · K League 1win 38%
  • at Jeonbuk Motors6 Dec · K League 1win 32%

Ulsan Hyundai FC

  • vs Jeonbuk Motors29 Nov · K League 1win 37%
  • at Daejeon Citizen6 Dec · K League 1win 28%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.