Palmeiras
vs
Estudiantes La Plata
CONMEBOL Libertadores prediction
Our model says: Palmeiras 2–0 Estudiantes La Plata
The model makes it 69% Palmeiras, 21% draw, 10% Estudiantes La Plata — fair odds of 1.45, 4.76 and 10.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Palmeiras 2.23, Estudiantes La Plata 0.58.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
One-sided: Palmeiras are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Palmeiras are 2nd in CONMEBOL Libertadores, Group F on 11 points from 6 games; Estudiantes La Plata are 2nd in CONMEBOL Libertadores, Group A on 9 points from 6 games.
- Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Fluminense.
- Estudiantes La Plata are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Flamengo.
Chance to go through
CONMEBOL Libertadores Final — a single match: the winner goes through.
- Palmeiras75%
- Level after ninety minutes17%
- Estudiantes La Plata8%
The model's chance of each side going through in ninety minutes. Level means extra time or penalties, which it does not forecast. A new figure: not yet checked against settled ties, so read it as an estimate, not a record.
Other predictions for 28 Nov
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Palmeiras vs Estudiantes La Plata
Has the model earned this number?
Palmeiras at 69%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Palmeiras vs Estudiantes La Plata
Palmeiras
CONMEBOL Libertadores
- W2-1away to Fluminense15 October 2026
- W1-0LDU de Quito9 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cerro Porteno19 August 2026
- D1-1Cerro Porteno12 August 2026
- W4-1Junior28 May 2026
Estudiantes La Plata
CONMEBOL Libertadores
- D0-0Flamengo16 October 2026
- W1-0away to Corinthians17 September 2026
- D1-1Corinthians10 September 2026
- W3-0away to Universidad Catolica19 August 2026
- D1-1Universidad Catolica12 August 2026
What these results say
- Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estudiantes La Plata went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Estudiantes La Plata scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Estudiantes La Plata had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
CONMEBOL Libertadores table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 11 |
| 2 | Estudiantes La Plata | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Estudiantes La Plata
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López44
- J. Arias32
Estudiantes La Plata
GoalsAssists
- G. Carrillo30
- T. Palacios30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Palmeiras against 0.58 for Estudiantes La Plata. Palmeiras's attack/defence rating is 1.15/0.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.29 for Estudiantes La Plata.
How the model reaches 69% for Palmeiras to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Palmeiras to win. Then home advantage adds 11 points, Palmeiras's ratings add 10 points and Estudiantes La Plata's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 69%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground35%
- Home advantage46%+11
- Palmeiras's ratings56%+10
- Estudiantes La Plata's ratings69%+13
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Palmeiras at home · Estudiantes La Plata away
League matches only, this season — Palmeiras in the Serie A, Estudiantes La Plata in the Liga Profesional Argentina; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Palmeiras 34 in the Serie A, Estudiantes La Plata 33 in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
Palmeiras score most often in the 0–15 minute window (12 goals); Estudiantes La Plata have let in 4 there.
Estudiantes La Plata score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Palmeiras have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Palmeiras
- vs Coritiba3 Dec · Serie Awin 73%
Estudiantes La Plata
No further matches on our board yet.
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.