Bucheon FC 1995
vs
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Bucheon FC 1995 0–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC
The model makes it 31% Bucheon FC 1995, 30% draw, 39% Gimcheon Sangmu FC — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Bucheon FC 1995 1.11, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.31.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Edge to Gimcheon Sangmu FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Bucheon FC 1995's rating is built from 37 K League 1 matches and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 674 matches.
Key facts
- Bucheon FC 1995 are 11th on 33 points from 35 games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are 10th on 38 points from 35 games — K League 1, Relegation Group.
- Bucheon FC 1995 have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Pohang Steelers.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to FC Anyang.
- Last 6 meetings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended Bucheon FC 1995 0–2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Has the model earned this number?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Bucheon FC 1995
K League 1
- D2-2Pohang Steelers8 November 2026
- L1-2away to FC Anyang1 November 2026
- L0-3Gwangju FC24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Gangwon FC9 October 2026
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
K League 1
- W1-0FC Anyang7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Gwangju FC31 October 2026
- L1-2Daejeon Citizen24 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Seoul18 October 2026
- L0-1FC Anyang10 October 2026
What these results say
- Bucheon FC 1995 did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bucheon FC 1995 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bucheon FC 1995 had three goals or more.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 35 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 33 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 35 | 6 | 20 | 9 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 19 September 2026Bucheon FC 1995 0–2 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
- 11 July 2026Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–1 Bucheon FC 1995K League 1
- 25 April 2026Bucheon FC 1995 0–2 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
- 14 May 2025Bucheon FC 1995 3–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FCFA Cup
- 7 October 2023Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3–1 Bucheon FC 1995K League 2
- 1 July 2023Bucheon FC 1995 0–3 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 2
Leading scorers: Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Bucheon FC 1995
GoalsAssists
- Jefferson Galego51
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
GoalsAssists
- Go Jae-Hyeon53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 against 1.31 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Bucheon FC 1995's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.35 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
How the model reaches 39% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win. Then home advantage takes away 3 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Bucheon FC 1995's ratings add 4 points and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage33%−3
- Both sides at this match's level32%−1
- Bucheon FC 1995's ratings36%+4
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC's ratings39%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bucheon FC 1995 at home · Gimcheon Sangmu FC away
League matches only, K League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: Bucheon FC 1995 35, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 35.
Bucheon FC 1995 score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Gimcheon Sangmu FC have let in 9 there.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Bucheon FC 1995 have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Bucheon FC 1995
- at Jeju United FC5 Dec · K League 1win 24%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- vs Pohang Steelers5 Dec · K League 1win 40%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.